“5·31” Photovoltaic New Deal: The development of “quantity” stepped on “brake” and “quality” hoped to “refuel”

The industry's new policies have been released, and the industry's collectives have collectively “written” and industry authorities have held symposiums and press conferences... The early summer of 2018 is destined to be included in the history of China's photovoltaic industry development, especially in June. The curtain "big play."

The opening of the "big play" originated from the "one paper notice" of the three national departments - on June 1, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018" (hereinafter referred to as " Notice ") (Since the document was filed on May 31, also known as "5.31 New Deal"), the Chinese PV industry, which has developed rapidly in recent years, has stepped on the "quick brake". Although the energy authorities released the signal that “the scale of PV development will be strictly controlled” earlier this year, the industry has psychological expectations, but after the stricter and more unexpected policy documents were officially released, the whole industry was in a hurry. The sorrows and sorrows all over the place, and they all expressed their feelings of "one night into the winter."

Overall, the key word of the "5.31 New Deal" is that photovoltaic power generation "to control the amount and reduce subsidies." Specifically, the terms given by the New Deal are: in 2018, the local power stations that need state subsidies will not be arranged for the time being; the distributed photovoltaic development plan will be around 10 million kilowatts in 2018; the on-grid price of newly-operated photovoltaic power plants will be reduced by 0.05 yuan; For self-sufficient and surplus electricity access to distributed projects, the subsidy standard is reduced by 0.05 yuan to 0.32 yuan per kWh (including tax).

One stone has stirred up thousands of waves, and the "5.31 New Deal" has produced a huge "vibration" in the entire industry.

“The most stringent in history” policy has triggered “shocks” in the industry

For the photovoltaic industry, strict control of the New Deal is like a sudden burst of ice water.

The reason why it is called “the most stringent in history” is that distributed PV, which was not restricted by the indicators, was included in the scale management, and according to the construction progress of the first five months, the 10GW indicator for the rest of the year is running low. . And after five months, the benchmark price of the grid was lowered again, breaking the previous year’s practice of one year, which means that the frequency of electricity price adjustment will accelerate in the future. In addition, the suspension of the general ground power station indicators, the size of the front-runner project and the start-up time will be further studied based on the optimization of the scale of photovoltaic power generation. The above adjustments have been implemented since the date of the publication, which is equivalent to no buffer period.

The 3 departments also fully considered the impact brought by the “New Deal” to the industry. At the same time as the “Notice” was issued, the new energy department of the National Energy Administration and the responsible comrade of the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission also answered questions on the “Notice”. The official website of the Energy Bureau came out and interpreted the New Deal. However, the “interpretation” of the competent authorities did not ruin the “anxiety” of the industry after the introduction of the New Deal. On June 3, 11 PV plaques sent a letter to Xinhua News Agency, and issued “About the Entrepreneur to the 3 ministries and commissions 5.31” The joint letter of the urgent request of the new PV administration put forward different views on the introduction of the "5.31 New Deal" by the three ministries. In less than two days, 192 household PV companies participated in the joint name, and the proposal was against the “one size fits all” allocation of 10 million kilowatts across the household and photovoltaic and other distributed photovoltaic power plants and industrial and commercial rooftop distributed photovoltaic power plants. Photovoltaic support range.

On June 4th, China's photovoltaic industry issued an emergency “announcement”, saying that it once again learned from the competent authorities of the industry that it has obtained the 2017 general ground PV power plant index project. If it is connected to the grid before June 30 this year, it will still implement the 2017 benchmark electricity price. .

On June 6, the New Energy Department of the National Energy Administration and representatives of some enterprises of the Photovoltaic Industry Association held a discussion on the “Corporate Appeal and Policy Announcement” of the Notice. On June 8, the deputy director of the National Energy Administration, Mr. Ruan Chengyuan, presided over a symposium to listen to the opinions of some industry associations on the Notice. China Photovoltaic Industry Association, China Energy Research Association Renewable Energy Committee, China Renewable Energy Society Photovoltaic The relevant committees of the Committee, the China Recycling Energy Association Renewable Energy Committee and the National Federation of Industry and Commerce New Energy Chamber of Commerce made recommendations on the Notice. On June 11, the National Energy Administration held a press conference, mainly focusing on the "Notice" to answer relevant questions.

At the same time, the energy departments of Hebei, Shandong and other places have begun to issue texts and introduce specific policy measures for the "5.31 New Deal", and the new PV policy has begun to be implemented.

The development choice of "long pain is worse than short pain"

In recent years, China's photovoltaic development has achieved remarkable achievements. The newly installed installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation ranks first in the world for five consecutive years, and its cumulative installed capacity ranks first in the world for three consecutive years. As of the end of 2017, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the country reached 130 million kilowatts. As of the end of April 2018, the installed capacity has exceeded 140 million kilowatts.

According to the relevant person in charge of the National Energy Administration, photovoltaic development has encountered some difficulties and problems while achieving remarkable results. As of the end of 2017, the accumulated subsidies for renewable energy power generation totaled 112.7 billion yuan, of which the photovoltaic subsidy gap was 45.5 billion yuan (accounting for about 40%), and it is expanding year by year. With the rapid increase of photovoltaic power generation, some places have also experienced serious problems of power-off and power-off. Stimulated by the rapid growth of the domestic photovoltaic power generation market, photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises have expanded their production capacity, and the problem of overcapacity in photovoltaic manufacturing, quality of products and power station construction has gradually emerged.

The National Energy Administration stressed that the promulgation of the "Notice" is not only an important measure to implement the supply-side structural reforms, but also to promote the high-quality development of the economy. It is also an important measure to alleviate the prominent contradictions and outstanding problems such as the subsidy gap and the blackout of electricity in the photovoltaic industry. This is an inevitable requirement for the development of the photovoltaic industry to enter a new stage, and plays an important role in achieving sustainable and healthy development of the photovoltaic industry and improving the competitiveness of China's photovoltaic industry in the international arena.

"There is national consideration at the national level, but for the industry, the introduction of the New Deal has indeed had a huge impact and impact. Whether it is manufacturing, or the supplier power station industry, installers, developers, engineering companies, etc., will face The huge impact brought by the rapid decline of domestic market capacity, according to the requirements of the New Deal, is equivalent to 20-30GW (Jiva) market capacity this year, the whole industry is difficult to find such a large market to fill this gap, manufacturing The investment is very big. Once there is no market and orders, it will face difficulties. After the introduction of the New Deal, it naturally caused a huge 'vibration' in the whole industry.” Zou Chizhen, vice president of solar energy services in TÜV Rheinland, analyzed.

In the joint letter of the photovoltaic giants, they suggested a certain buffer period for projects that have been legally approved for construction; the scale of the scale should not be too large; support the photovoltaic industry to enter the last mile without subsidies. The reason is that according to the previously planned projects under construction, there are no indicators and subsidies at once. "Everyone thinks that the sky will fall." At the National Energy Administration's symposium, the five major industry associations also recommended that the relevant departments should confirm through official channels as soon as possible that the projects that have obtained the 2017 ordinary ground photovoltaic power plant indicators still implement the original “630” policy; The agreement signed and the construction of the distributed project before the 31st should give certain considerations.

"We agree that the PV industry should move from high-speed growth to high-quality development, but if the adjustment of relevant policies is 'quick braking' and 'hard landing', it will cause serious pain and a lot of negative factors in the industry." China Photovoltaic Industry Association Chairman, Tianhe Gao Jifan, chairman of the company, told reporters that after the implementation of the new policy, the market share will be concentrated in enterprises with leading technology, management excellence and financial strength. In the future, industry leaders will gain more development opportunities, and industry adjustment will force enterprises. High quality development.

"For the industry, there will be pain in the short term, but in the long run, the New Deal is a good thing. While the industry is intensifying competition and accelerating the reshuffle, it will also improve the quality of the industry." Zou Chizhen believes that after the New Deal, the enterprise We must actively explore new markets, especially overseas markets. On the other hand, we must change our development thinking and pay more attention to products and innovation. Whether it is to open up overseas markets or a more intense domestic market, there will be only one core of competition, that is, quality. .

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