Abstract Looking forward to 2016, with the continuous expansion of the domestic and international PV market and the gradual improvement of the international trade environment, the development environment of China's PV industry continues to improve, the fundamentals of the company continue to improve, but also the problems of weak corporate profitability. Faced with such a development situation, photovoltaic production...
Looking forward to 2016, with the continuous expansion of the domestic and international PV market and the gradual improvement of the international trade environment, the development environment of China's PV industry continues to improve, and the fundamentals of the company continue to improve, but it also faces problems such as weak corporate profitability. In the face of such a development situation, how can the photovoltaic industry solve the financing difficulties and financing problems of the photovoltaic manufacturing industry? If the front-runner plan is accelerated but the domestic advanced product capacity is insufficient, how to deal with the photovoltaic subsidy arrears, the payment is not timely? How to deal with the northwest region limit Electricity problem? How to deal with the irregular taxation of photovoltaic land and the unreasonable problem of land policy? Based on the forward-looking analysis of the above situation and problems, it is proposed to deepen the understanding of the photovoltaic industry, guide financial institutions to continue to support and strengthen, and establish a national photovoltaic industry investment fund. To correct market failures, plan the construction of photovoltaic bases and power grids, ensure photovoltaic grid-connected and full-scale acquisitions, clarify the nature of photovoltaic land use, and regulate land tax policies and other countermeasures. China's photovoltaic industry continues to maintain the warming trend since 2013. Under the vigorous development of the international photovoltaic market, especially the strong growth of China's photovoltaic market, the capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic enterprises has been effectively improved, the industrial scale has grown steadily, and the technological level has continued to improve. The profit rate has been improved. Under the guidance of the “Belt and Road†strategy and the protection of international trade, the pace of “going out†of China's PV companies is also accelerating. Looking forward to 2016, under the guidance of the policy and the market, the development of China's photovoltaic industry continues to improve, but the financing of photovoltaic manufacturing, subsidies in the photovoltaic market, power cuts and land for photovoltaic power plants will also restrict industrial development.
I. Basic judgments on the situation in 2016 (1) The photovoltaic market is booming, and China’s cumulative installed capacity ranks first in the world.
In 2015, the global PV market grew strongly, and the newly installed capacity is expected to exceed 50GW, an increase of 16.3% year-on-year, and the cumulative installed capacity exceeds 230GW. In the traditional markets, such as Japan, the United States, and Europe, the newly installed capacity will reach 9GW, 8GW and 7.5GW, respectively, and still maintain a strong development momentum. Emerging markets are constantly emerging. The development of photovoltaic applications in Southeast Asia and Latin America is in full swing. The installed capacity of India, Thailand, Chile, Mexico and other countries is rapidly increasing. For example, India will reach 2.5GW in 2015. China's new PV installed capacity will reach 15GW, ranking first in the world, and the cumulative installed capacity is expected to exceed 43GW, surpassing Germany to become the country with the largest installed capacity of PV in the world.
(II) The industrial scale has grown steadily, and the profitability of enterprises has increased significantly.
In 2015, global polysilicon production continued to rise, with total output reaching 340,000 tons, up 12.6% year-on-year; China's polysilicon production was about 165,000 tons, up 25% year-on-year, and most of the 16 polysilicon companies were in full production. Even so, the annual import volume still exceeds 100,000 tons. The global solar PV module production is about 60GW, up 15.4% year-on-year. China's solar module production is about 43GW, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%. The top 10 component companies are mostly in double digits. A number of companies have begun to set up factories overseas, and the global trend of production layout is obvious. According to statistics on the production and operation of some enterprises that passed the "Regulations on Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry", in 2015, the average profit rate of component companies reached 4.8%, a year-on-year increase of more than 30%; although the capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic enterprises in China has been effectively improved, Component prices rebounded slightly, and overall corporate profitability remained weak.
(3) The technical level is continuously improved and the production cost is gradually reduced.
In 2015, with the joint promotion of internal and external environment, China's photovoltaic enterprises increased the research and development of process technology, and the level of production technology continued to improve. The energy consumption of polysilicon production in key enterprises continues to decline. The comprehensive cost of advanced enterprises has dropped to 90,000 yuan/ton. The average comprehensive power consumption of the industry has dropped to 100KWh/kg. The industrialization process of silane method and fluidized bed method has been accelerated; single crystal and many The crystal cell technology continued to improve, and the industrialization efficiency reached 19.5% and 18.3%, respectively. The technical routes such as passivated emitter back contact (PERC), heterojunction (HIT), back electrode, and high-concentration light were accelerated; photovoltaic module packaging and The anti-photo-attenuation technology is continuously improved. The production cost of leading enterprise components is reduced to 2.8 yuan / watt, the investment cost of photovoltaic power generation system is reduced to 8 yuan / watt, and the cost of electricity is reduced to 0.6-0.9 yuan / kWh.
Looking forward to 2016, technological progress will remain the theme of industrial development. It is expected that the conversion efficiency of industrialized polycrystalline silicon cells will exceed 18.5%, the number of monocrystalline silicon cells is expected to reach 20%, and the power of mainstream component products will reach 265-270W. Silane fluidized bed process polysilicon production process is expected to achieve large-scale production, single crystal continuous feeding production process and G7, G8 large capacity ingot casting technology continue to improve, diamond wire cutting technology will be further applied, PERC battery, N-type battery scale production Further expansion. At the same time, nearly 99% of China's photovoltaic products use crystalline silicon technology, the development of new thin film, heterojunction, high-concentration light and other technical routes is slow, the degree of simplification of the technical route is high, and the hidden dangers of subsequent development of the industry are obvious. The key process technology research and basic theoretical research of domestic PV manufacturing industry is insufficient, the innovation investment is weak, the new products and new technology reserves are lacking, and there is still a gap between the core competitiveness and the international advanced level. It is urgent to invest in funds, technology, talents and other factors to promote the transformation of China's photovoltaic manufacturing to photovoltaic innovation and enhance the core competitiveness of the industry.
(4) Industrial investment continued to increase, and mergers and acquisitions continued to advance
According to the statistics of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, from January to September 2015, China's PV-related industry investment was 80.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%. According to Energy Trend, in 2015, many Chinese companies have announced plans to expand production. Increase the production capacity of 4.2GW components, of which domestic component capacity will increase by 3.2GW. A number of enterprises have implemented the “going out†strategy. The capacity of overseas batteries and modules that have been completed and put into operation in China has reached 3.2GW and 3.78GW respectively, and the capacity under construction and expansion has reached 2.2GW and 1.9GW respectively. Industry mergers and acquisitions have accelerated, and market-oriented resource integration has continued to deepen. Shunfeng International acquired polysilicon enterprise Wannian Silicon and US battery component company Suniva to further optimize the industrial chain layout; Tongwei Group invested 850 million Taiwan dollars to invest in Taiwan Jingjing Energy to enhance the economies of scale of the battery; Xi'an Longji and Trina Solar Companies and Yingli cooperate to maximize capacity utilization through entrusted processing.
Second, several issues that need attention (1) Financing difficulties and financing costs seriously restrict the transformation and upgrading of photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises
First, due to the bankruptcy or suspension of production of a small number of PV companies, some non-performing loan ratios have led to financial institutions generally tightening credit financing for the photovoltaic manufacturing industry. The major banks' loan authority for manufacturing links has been recovered to the head office, and basically restrictions are imposed. The situation makes photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises face serious financing difficulties. Second, China's backbone PV companies are mostly listed overseas. Due to industry integration and foreign trade disputes, the stock price of overseas listed PV companies has been greatly suppressed, and the price-earnings ratio has been at a low level for a long time, which has greatly increased the financing costs of key enterprises. Ability to finance in overseas capital markets. Third, China's domestic financing costs are relatively high. According to survey statistics, the financing cost of most PV companies in China is around 8%, some enterprises are even as high as 10%, and overseas financing costs are mostly around 3%-5%. The high cost of financing makes China's photovoltaic enterprises costly, greatly eroding corporate profits, and seriously restricting the technological transformation of photovoltaic manufacturing and the industrialization of new technologies.
(2) The “Top Runner†program will lead the development of the domestic PV market
Under the background of the current power shortage in some parts of the northwest, combined with the practice of Datong City's "leaders" plan, the future "leaders" base construction will be further developed. First, it can effectively stimulate the market demand for high-efficiency products, which is conducive to promoting technological upgrading and product quality improvement of enterprises, and promoting the transformation and upgrading of China's photovoltaic industry. Second, it is necessary to determine the scale allocation of photovoltaic power plants through market-oriented mechanisms, which is conducive to solving the problems of scattered, small and chaotic in the past. The power station indicators are issued; the third is that the “leaders†base government acts as a nanny, providing unified public infrastructure construction, filing and planning, and bundling services, which is beneficial to the owners to reduce investment costs. According to the media disclosure information, there will be multiple GW-level “leaders†bases such as Datong, Baotou, Jining and Yangquan next year. However, according to the statistics of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the current production capacity of China’s “Leaders†program is low. Far from meeting market demand, it is urgent to accelerate the upgrading of production equipment or industrialization of new technologies, increase the production capacity of advanced production lines and improve product quality.
(3) Photovoltaic subsidies cannot be issued in time to become a bottleneck restricting market development
On the one hand, there is a huge gap in renewable energy subsidy funds, and subsidy arrears are more serious. The PV on-grid tariff subsidy mainly comes from the renewable energy price surcharge. In 2015, the additional amount of renewable energy is 1.5 points/kWh (now adjusted to 1.9 points/kWh), and the amount collected in 2015 is about 50 billion yuan. The PV part is expected to meet only the project funding needs of the list of renewable energy subsidies before September 2013. The projects connected to the grid after September 2013 are basically not subsidized. It is expected that by the end of 2015, this part of the funding gap will be high. Tens of millions. On the other hand, the current renewable energy subsidy reporting process is too cumbersome and the subsidy is not paid in time. The declaration, review and disbursement of subsidy funds shall be examined and approved by the local finance, price and energy departments, and then approved by the Ministry of Finance in conjunction with the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, and then transferred to the local finance by the central government, and then directly distributed to the power generation enterprises or The payment by the grid company has resulted in a long period of fund allocation. This has led to poor capital flow and increased financial costs of power generation enterprises. The phenomenon of triangular debt among power generation enterprises, manufacturing enterprises and parts companies in the industrial chain has seriously affected the technological innovation, technological transformation, technological upgrading, normal operation and economic benefits of enterprises.
(4) The land use policy for photovoltaic power stations is unreasonable, the tax is not standardized, and the burden on enterprises is increased.
First, the land policy is unreasonable, which severely limits the development of the photovoltaic application market. In September 2015, the Ministry of Land and Resources, the National Development and Reform Commission and other six ministries and commissions issued the "Opinions on Supporting the Development of New Industries and New Formats to Promote Public Entrepreneurship and Innovative Land Use Policy" (Guo Tu Zi [2015] No. 5) is a project on photovoltaic power plants. It is proposed that “all land use should be managed according to construction landâ€. Since the land in the central and eastern regions of China is basically “agricultural land†or “construction landâ€, the construction of photovoltaic power plants is basically complementary to agricultural light. The development of fishery and light complementation does not change the original land use nature. However, this article requires that the land occupation should be managed according to the construction land in a “one size fits all†way. On the one hand, the investment cost of photovoltaic power plants will increase, and on the other hand, local governments will use land use indicators. And planning and other issues can not arrange photovoltaic power station construction projects, basically hindering the development of new industries such as photovoltaics, rather than promoting, contrary to the original intention of the article. Second, the land tax collection of photovoltaic power stations is not standardized, the corporate tax burden is too heavy, and the operation is opaque and not public. Under the background of the national economic downturn, some local governments began to levy farmland occupation tax and land use tax claims on photovoltaic power station projects that have been completed and put into operation, and the collection methods and tax standards are not standardized, the differences are obvious, and the adjustable space is too large. The photovoltaic power station investment enterprises cannot afford the huge investment cost of this part of the land tax burden, resulting in a sharp decline or even loss of investment income, which seriously affects the power station investment and the enthusiasm of the entire photovoltaic industry.
(V) The construction of power grids is lagging behind, and the situation of power cuts severely affects the construction of photovoltaic power stations
At present, there is a problem in the coordination of renewable energy development planning and power grid construction planning. Due to the structural constraints of regional power grids and the lag of the construction of the external transmission channels, the power-limiting situation faced by the concentrated development areas of photovoltaic power plants is becoming more and more severe, which makes the advantages of resource-rich regions difficult to achieve. . At the same time, many regions have not yet established a sound power operation mechanism that guarantees the priority allocation of renewable energy. The annual allocation of power generation is still planned to arrange power dispatching operations. The requirements for the safeguard purchase of the Renewable Energy Law cannot be effectively implemented. The phenomenon that the renewable energy power generation system is limited in output is very serious. If the problem of disconnection between PV power plant construction and supporting power grid planning is not improved, the full-guaranteed acquisition system for renewable energy power generation is difficult to implement, project-level planning will be difficult to implement, and the ambitious goal of renewable energy development planning may fall.
III. Suggestions for countermeasures (1) Strengthen publicity and exchange, and innovate financial support means
Multi-channel publicity on the actual situation of the development of the photovoltaic industry, especially media and financial institutions, to deepen the understanding and understanding of the development stage of the photovoltaic industry and future development trends, encourage financial institutions to innovate financing products, and support and strengthen. First, support financial institutions to ease the problem of excessive debt burden of enterprises through debt-to-equity swaps or non-performing asset securitization; second, encourage financial institutions to strengthen cooperation, establish closed financing funds, and provide order financing support for key enterprises to avoid The risk of the exhaustion of the capital chain of the backbone enterprises; the third is to encourage financial institutions to cooperate with overseas listed companies, support enterprises to withdraw from the market to return to A shares, the regulatory authorities provide green channels, shorten the re-listing procedures and processes; Fourth, continue to promote the reduction of photovoltaics Corporate financing costs, through differentiated business directory or order loans, implement differentiated low-cost financing policies.
(2) Establishing investment funds to support technological innovation in enterprises
Financial funds are the guide, attracting social capital investment and market operation. Encourage and attract the five major power generation groups, power grid companies, photovoltaic companies, financial institutions and social capital to participate in fund-funding, support the development of photovoltaic enterprises by means of fund investment, promote mergers and acquisitions, standardize business operations, and accelerate the formation of benign self-development capabilities. The fund invests in the construction and manufacturing of photovoltaic power plants in a certain proportion, and compensates the risks of the PV manufacturing industry through the stable income of the power station. The manufacturing process mainly supports the technological innovation of photovoltaic enterprises and supports the “going out†of photovoltaic enterprises to optimize the global layout of photovoltaic manufacturing.
(3) Guide the global layout and implement the perfect subsidy policy
The first is to properly resolve foreign trade barriers and encourage enterprises to invest in factories or countries with high cost or large market potential to optimize the global distribution of production capacity. The second is to solve the problem of PV subsidy fund distribution as soon as possible, improve the additional standards for renewable energy as soon as possible, solve the problem of subsidy funding gap, and implement the spirit of the directive of Vice Premier Ma Kai in the Wuxi Photovoltaic Symposium. The PV subsidy is paid by the grid company on behalf of the company. The financial departments and other power grid companies will conduct audits and accounting to ensure timely payment of subsidy funds. The third is to improve the PV subsidy policy, promote technological progress, and not subsidize or subsidize components with lower than certain standards. At the same time, encourage the optimization of the price range of high-efficiency components in the “Leader†program to ensure the market share of efficient components and Profit margins.
(4) Strengthening overall coordination and ensuring full acquisition of power generation
The energy management and power supervision departments of the State Council coordinate the provinces, districts and municipalities to supplement or amend the regional renewable energy development plan, incorporate national key projects into local development plans, and harmonize local planning with national planning; coordinate the national grid and China Southern Power Grid to improve grid development. Planning to coordinate the development plan of the power grid with the renewable energy development plan, open up the east-west and north-south power transmission channels, especially to arrange the construction of the export channel of the national tens of kilowatts photovoltaic power generation base, realize the effective use of resources in the advantageous areas, and plan The implementation of the situation will be supervised. At the same time, it is recommended that the State Power Regulatory Authority investigate the actual implementation of the grid connection and acquisition of renewable energy power generation in accordance with the regulations on the full guaranteed purchase of renewable energy power generation in the Renewable Energy Law, and fail to complete the acquisition in accordance with the regulations. Renewable energy, causing economic losses caused by renewable energy power generation companies to pursue liability for compensation, and legally guarantee the legitimate rights and interests of renewable energy power generation enterprises.
(5) Defining the nature of land use and regulating land tax policy
It is recommended that the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation introduce a clear taxation policy for land use of photovoltaic power generation enterprises at the national level to regulate the land use tax standards of local photovoltaic power generation enterprises. On the one hand, the financial and tax authorities are required to introduce specific guidelines and regulations for regulating the collection of farmland occupation tax; on the other hand, it is recommended to refer to the state's incentive support measures for thermal power, and introduce a policy to levy a land use tax on photovoltaic power plants. At the same time, the land, forestry, energy, finance and taxation departments should jointly study and formulate the land use policy for photovoltaic power plants, clarify the nature and scope of the photovoltaic power station land, and manage the photovoltaic power station construction based on the original land nature management of the photovoltaic power plant land without changing the original land use property. Combine with agriculture, fisheries, etc. to improve land use efficiency.
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