The US Department of Commerce's postponement of the anti-subsidy preliminary ruling on China's PV products will not fundamentally change the fate of Chinese companies. According to Reuters, the US Department of Commerce will spend an extra month investigating allegations that the Chinese government has provided unfair subsidies to the photovoltaic industry, delaying the initial ruling scheduled for January 12 to February 14. At the same time, the industry expects that China's total PV module production capacity will reach 30GW this year, and the global installed capacity is expected to be only 20GW this year. The overcapacity problem is highlighted, and the Chinese PV industry is rapidly falling into the cold winter. The performance of a listed company may best explain the problem. Among the 11 Chinese PV companies listed in the US, 9 companies reported losses in the third quarter, with a total loss of 460 million US dollars. Among them, Suntech lost a loss of 116.4 million US dollars in the third quarter, becoming the most serious PV company in China. The third-quarter results of domestic listed PV companies also showed a significant decline. Sunflower and Tuo Xin Xinneng (002218, shares) suffered losses in the third quarter. There are certain external reasons for the situation today. Since the beginning of this year, with the intensification of the European debt crisis, the global PV market demand has shrunk rapidly. To add insult to injury, European countries such as Germany and Italy have lowered their subsidies for the photovoltaic industry. They accounted for more than 70% of the world's photovoltaic installed capacity and accounted for China's photovoltaic cells. 80% of the European market demand for exports has fallen sharply; in mid-October, seven US solar cell manufacturers such as Solar World jointly filed a complaint requesting anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on Chinese PV cells exported to the United States, and collecting more than 100%. High punitive tariffs. “In 2010, China’s solar cell production was 8,000 megawatts, while the new solar PV system installed capacity was only 520 megawatts. The rest were used for export, and the export ratio was as high as 94%. Such high external dependence does have a great risk. Li Ling, an analyst at ChinaVenture Investment Group, believes. Domestically, China's PV industry has undergone five years of barbaric growth. Under the dual stimulation of national policies and market enthusiasm, solar cell production has doubled for five consecutive years. In 2008, there were less than 100 PV companies, and it has expanded to more than 500. ChinaVenture Investment Group statistics show that China's solar cells in 2010 The output is 8,000 megawatts, accounting for 50% of global production. It surpasses Europe and Japan as the world's largest solar cell production country. "Many companies and capitals that have nothing to do with solar energy have rushed to the top, and the original photovoltaic companies have continued to exert their efforts to make large-scale financing as much as possible, trying to occupy the market through the "barbaric growth" of competition." Ling said. Li Ling pointed out that China's photovoltaic industry must survive the cold winter, and must get rid of the embarrassing situation of photovoltaic raw materials and products "two heads outside." Although China is the world's largest exporter of silicon raw materials, the core technology of polysilicon purification is mainly in the hands of seven foreign manufacturers. They almost monopolize the global supply of polysilicon raw materials. China only imports more than 2 billion US dollars of polysilicon from the United States every year. In terms of raw materials; in the market, as the world's largest solar cell manufacturing base, Chinese companies rely heavily on exports. In 2010, for example, China's solar cell production reached 8,000 megawatts, while China's solar photovoltaic system installed capacity was only 520 megawatts. The remaining 7480 MW is used for export, and the export ratio is as high as 94%. "The supply of raw materials has no right to speak, and the terminal market is mainly outside, which makes China's photovoltaic enterprises subject to long-term constraints. The ability to withstand risks is extremely poor. The European and American economies and policies are slightly swaying, which will bring great winds and waves." Li Ling said. In order to fundamentally save China's photovoltaic industry, it will depend on the domestic market for a long time. In fact, the relevant departments have issued a series of photovoltaic support policies, and the "Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalogue (2011 Edition)" for the first time included new energy as a separate category in the encouraged category of the guidance catalogue, and pushed for solar energy; The Notice of the Annuity Sun Demonstration Work clarifies that the central government will continue to arrange funds to support the implementation of the Golden Sun Demonstration Project; the Notice on Improving the On-grid Electricity Price Policy for Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation has established a national unified benchmark price for electricity. The forthcoming "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development" is expected to raise the target of solar power generation to 15 million kilowatts, which is three times the previous plan. The target of photovoltaic power generation is raised to 14 million kilowatts from the previous 9 million kilowatts. . "If the domestic photovoltaic power generation market can be launched, the photovoltaic industry will usher in a new round of prosperity." Li Ling said.
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