Daily review: supply and demand, two weak steel prices will remain high and stabilize the trend

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Today's point of view

Today, domestic black futures commodities fluctuated at a high level, and the lows rebounded, failing to drive market sentiment. The spot market has a large volume of transactions, and the actual demand of the terminal is weak. The high price rise is blocked and the power is insufficient. The output of the steel mills declined this week, the factory warehouse increased slightly, the supply weakness has not changed, and the steel mills will remain strong. In terms of social library, the decline was obvious. Under the condition of limited inventory pressure, the bottom of the price was strong. Under the high price, the shipment was still dominated. In the weak situation of supply and demand, the steel price is expected to remain high and stabilize.

Macro hotspot

1. [Crude oil futures closed down, beans two gains narrowed] Crude oil closed down more than 2%, fuel, ferrosilicon, asphalt, PVC, apple fell more than 1%, manganese silicon, Zheng alcohol, corn, hot coil, thread, Cotton yarns fell. Bean 2, eggs, Shanghai aluminum rose more than 2%, coke, beans, rapeseed meal, soybean meal rose more than 1%, Shanghai lead, Shanghai copper, Shanghai nickel, coking coal, rubber, Zheng coal, glass, iron ore, Shanghai zinc, Plastics, Shanghai tin, Zheng cotton, Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, sugar and so on closed up.

2, [Shanghai stock index rebounded back to 2800 points, individual stocks rose technology stocks for a long time violation of the blowout]

The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2792.38 points, up 1.83%, with a turnover of 151.1 billion.

The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8752.20 points, up 2.98%, with a turnover of 196 billion.

The GEM closed at 1497.61 points, up 3.44%, with a turnover of 60.5 billion.

3. [National Bureau of Statistics: The increase in CPI in July was mainly affected by the increase in non-food prices, and pork prices continued to decline.] From the ring, summer travel peaks, demand increased, and airline tickets, travel and hotel accommodation prices rose by 14.5% and 7.9 respectively. % and 2.2%, the three factors affect the CPI increase of about 0.19 percentage points, which is the main reason for the rise in CPI. From the same period of last year, the price of health care rose by 4.6%, the price of tourism rose by 4.4%, the price of education services rose by 2.8%, and the price of residential goods rose by 2.4%. The above four factors affected the increase of CPI by about 1.16 percentage points. Pork prices fell by 9.6%, and the decline continued to narrow, affecting the CPI drop by about 0.24 percentage points.

4. [The Mutual Gold Remediation Office requires the P2P platform to report the “Lai Lai” list before 12 o'clock on the 9th, and the fugitive debts will enter the credit information system.] From the people close to the central bank, it was learned that on August 8, the Internet financial risk special rectification work leader The group office issued the "Notice on Submitting Information on P2P Platform Borrowers' Escaped Debt", which pointed out that the recent P2P online lending institutions have frequent risks, and some borrowers "maliciously evade debts", which has aggravated the risk of P2P platform. The notice requires all localities to report the list of borrowers who have maliciously escaped the debts from this risk event based on the information in the previous period. In the next step, the National Mutual Gold Rehabilitation Office will coordinate the credit management department to include the above-mentioned information on the debt evasion and debt into the credit information system and the “credit China” database, which will constrain the relevant evacuees.

Market today

Raw material

Billet: The national billet market price has slowed down. Today, the steel market is weakening, steel billets are generally sold, and the prices of downstream finished products are steadily decreasing. Today, Tangshan billet straight hair in general, warehousing stock around 3950 tax-included out of the warehouse, some have transactions, steel futures volatility, downstream varieties of individual varieties can be sold. Today, Shandong steel billet is stable, Q235 billet factory 3950-3960 yuan / ton, the transaction is still acceptable.

Domestic mines: Some market prices of domestically produced main producing areas increased slightly. North China - Tangshan 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 680-690 yuan / ton, Qianxi 66% dry basis tax-included cash out 670-680 yuan / ton, Qian'an 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 690-700 yuan / ton; Zunhua 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 680-690 yuan / ton.

Imported mines: The imported spot market is generally active. Affected by the continued decline of the 1901 contract, the enthusiasm of traders in this morning has declined. The mainstream price of PB powder in Shandong is 500 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of PB powder in Tangshan is 510 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from yesterday. /Ton. In the morning, the trading volume fluctuated downwards, the market trading was relatively deserted, the firm price was lower than the traders' expectations, and the transaction was difficult. With the recovery of the futures disk, some traders' offer prices were raised by RMB 5/ton, although the inquiry was The increase, but the buying price is still not as good as the traders expected, the bargaining space has increased, and the transaction performance is average.

Steel spot

Construction steel: Today's domestic construction steel prices are weakly adjusted. In terms of specific prices, the average price of 25 major cities nationwide was 4,394 yuan/ton, which was 4 yuan/ton lower than that of the previous trading day. The prices in East China, Central China and North China were stable and weak, while prices in other regions were stable. Specifically, the market in many markets held steady in early trading, the market wait-and-see mood was strong, and the intraday trading period was affected by the snails. Some merchants chose to loosely ship, the price was lowered by 10-30 yuan/ton, and the disk rebounded in the afternoon. Something is getting better. From the national inventory data of the network on the 9th, the threaded social library 442 decreased by 10.66, the wire 123.65 increased by 3.21, and the building materials inventory continued to decline. From the market feedback, the market resources are still tight, the specifications are not obvious, and the price is falling. Space is limited. On the whole, it is expected that the price of domestic construction steel will fluctuate in the future.

Hot-rolled coils: Today's hot rolling prices in 24 major cities nationwide fell slightly. The average price of 3.0 hot-rolled coils was 4,370 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the national average price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils was 4313. Yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Today's futures market fluctuated downwards, the market wait-and-see mood was strong, and merchants' prices fell slightly. However, downstream purchases were more cautious and the overall transaction was weak. According to the statistics of this website, the national hot rolled inventory this week was 2.192 million tons, an increase of 49,900 tons from last week. The rise in inventory has constrained the price increase, but given the cost factor, the price decline is limited. In addition, the price of Tangshan billet market remained stable today, and the current price of carbon billet is 3,900 yuan / ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the hot-rolled market will fluctuate tomorrow.

Plate: Today's domestic plate market price consolidation, the average price of 20mm medium and heavy plate in 23 major cities nationwide is 4445 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Judging from the current market situation, although the cost is still strong, with the continuous increase in prices, the market transactions are obviously weak, so the merchants continue to chase the momentum. However, in the short term, although there is a certain increase in the social library, but the production companies maintain a more optimistic attitude towards the market in the short term, so the spot price has entered a dilemma. It is expected that the domestic plate market price will be consolidating tomorrow.

Cold-rolled coils: Today's national cold-rolled prices are stable. Price: 1.0 national cold rolling average price of 4795 yuan / ton, compared with the previous working day decreased by 1 yuan / ton. Main market prices: Shanghai market 1.0mm WISCO coils offer 4760 yuan / ton, Guangzhou market 1.0mm anang steel coil offer 4860 yuan / ton, Tianjin market 1.0mm anang steel coil offer 4640 yuan / ton. Market: Today's black commodity futures are mixed, and the market mentality remains cautious in the early trading. Except for some regions, the price is temporarily lowered by 10~20 yuan/ton. Although the overall market turnover has declined in the near future, the current market shortage of some specifications is still relatively common, so the merchant's offer is firm. Overall, the market price of cold rolled spot is expected to continue to fluctuate and stabilize tomorrow.

Steel: Today, the domestic steel market price is consolidating at a high level, and the market turnover in many markets has slowed down, and the quotation has also been more cautious. Specifically, the Tangshan-type steelworker's trough dropped 10-20 yuan/ton, the angle steel held steady, the overall transaction volume shrank sharply, the billet price rose strongly in the past two days, the demand for downstream demand of the section steel was insufficient, and the price increase was lower than the billet price increase, profit There has been a narrowing, and downstream merchants have increased their wait-and-see mood. The price of East China profiles has been consolidating at a high level, and the market quotation has become more cautious. As the afternoon futures oscillated, the market cashing out of the market increased significantly. The offer of South China profiles continued to be stable, but the market transactions were not ideal. In the afternoon, some shipments were slightly reduced. At present, the resources in the South China market are relatively small, and the cost of arrival in the later period is high, which must support the price. It is expected that the spot disk will still have strong cost support, and the price will have a higher probability of consolidation in the near future.

Steel pipe: On the 9th, domestic pipe prices fluctuated. In terms of varieties, the average price of welded pipe 4 inch 3.75mm is 4553 yuan/ton, which is stable compared with the previous trading day; the average price of galvanized pipe 4 inch 3.75mm is 5267 yuan/ton, which is 2 yuan lower than the previous trading day. Tonne; the average price of seamless pipe 108*4.5mm is 5358 yuan/ton, which is 13 yuan/ton higher than the previous trading day. Today, the trend of pipe prices in mainstream cities in the country is different. In terms of welded pipes and galvanized pipes, the price of Ruifeng Steel is temporarily stabilized today, and domestic mainstream manufacturers are also temporarily on the sidelines. However, some city traders have slightly lowered the ex-factory price, but most city traders are still holding on to the market. According to traders' feedback, traders are willing to pay a higher price as the low inventory resources move up. However, due to the current high price, some traders have deliberately pressed down the inventory. On the whole, it is expected that the short-term domestic welded pipe and galvanized pipe prices will continue to rise, but the range will be narrowed. In terms of seamless pipes, Shandong tube billets continued to rise by RMB 30/ton today, and Jiangsu billet prices rose by RMB 10-30/ton, but the price of tube plants was temporarily stable. According to the author's understanding, the recent market traders' shipments have begun to pick up, and some specifications are in short supply. In general, the price of seamless pipes has stabilized and strengthened recently.

Futures: Today, domestic black commodity futures fluctuated and closed up, among which raw materials continued to lead, and finished products were relatively weak. The main funds flowed in a large amount and the market was active. Specifically: Mysteel’s threaded social inventory reported 4.42 million tons today. The chain fell 10.66, the steel mill inventory reported 1,706,300 tons, up 5.28; the hot coil social inventory was 2,192,800 tons, up 4.99, and the steel mill's inventory was 936,300 tons, down 1.5. The decline in social stocks and the upward movement of steel mills indicate that traders are actively preparing for stocks. In terms of spot prices, there has been a slight loosening in various places today, and market transactions are still weak. On the supply side, steel mills' profits are currently better (more than 1,000 yuan), and electric furnace steel currently has a profit of more than 500 yuan. In the short-term, the spot continues to pull up the power shortage, with the snail 1901 as an example: today's heavy volume increase and close the cross-positive star, At the end of the day, the market barely closed above the 5th line, the daily line macd narrowed, and the time-divided indicators all showed a top-off signal. In the short-term, there may be a callback trend.


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