Since the beginning of this year, with the continuous drop in the price of thermal coal, the thermal power industry has gradually shed some serious losses in the past few years and started to earn a certain degree of profit. Then does the thermal power industry really earn as much as some people think? the answer is negative. At present, the profitability of the thermal power industry is still at a reasonable level. To judge the profitability and level of thermal power, in addition to coal prices, other factors must also be taken into consideration.
The first consideration should be the number of hours the equipment is used. Affected by the slowdown in electricity consumption growth in the entire society, in the first half of this year, the utilization of thermal power equipment was 2412 hours, which was the lowest value for the same period since 2006 except for the year of 2009, a year-on-year decrease of 86 hours. With the on-grid electricity price fixed, the revenue of the thermal power industry mainly depends on the amount of power generation, and the shrinkage of the number of hours of use of equipment has severely lowered the profitability of thermal power, and this phenomenon has continued to expand.
Second, we should consider the thermal power industry's desulfurization and denitrification reform costs. In recent years, the thermal power industry's investment in desulfurization and denitrification can be described as huge. However, the country's electricity price subsidies can not offset the prior equipment investment cost and post-operational maintenance cost of desulfurization and denitrification, and the electricity cost of desulfurization and denitrification is still high.
Again, we should consider the loss factors of the thermal power industry in the past few years. As profit growth is relative, in the past the thermal power profit growth was negative, and the growth base was very low. Therefore, the current profit growth rate data cannot represent the real profit level of the thermal power industry.
In addition, we must also consider the history of thermal power issues. The problem of historical debts in the thermal power industry is very serious and has not yet been completely digested. In 2012, the asset-liability ratio of the five major power generation groups was 84.99%, which was much higher than the average level of 63% of the central enterprises. The high debt-to-equity ratio seriously affected the long-term development of thermal power.
At the same time, we should see the contribution of thermal power to other energy sources such as new energy sources. As a traditional power generation method, thermal power can keep power generation companies more able to develop new energy sources. This role of thermal power will exist in the past and in the future. It can be said that the reasonable profit of thermal power is a guarantee for structural adjustment of the power industry.
The situation is different in different regions. For example, the northeastern region faces the problem of surplus power generation capacity and low utilization of thermal power generation. However, due to the large-scale generation of hydropower and the increase in purchased electricity, Hunan’s thermal power generation capacity was severely insufficient. In the first half of this year, thermal power plants still suffered a total loss of approximately 720 million yuan. In addition, the “coal power and mutual protection†policy implemented in some provinces also brings about many uncertainties for thermal power profits.
Therefore, the short-term profits of the thermal power industry need to be rationally viewed in a comprehensive and long-term perspective.
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