Abstract On September 1, the National Bureau of Statistics released data. In August, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month and falling below the critical point (50%). This is also 2012. The lowest since August. The above refers to...
On September 1, the National Bureau of Statistics released data. In August, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month and falling below the critical point (50%). This is also the 2012 8 The lowest since the month. The above index below 50% reflects the shrinking industrial manufacturing. Chen Zhongtao, senior economist of China Logistics Information Center, told reporters that the manufacturing industry slowed down in August and there are certain seasonal factors. At present, emerging industries are developing well, but the shortage of manufacturing demand still needs to be solved. "Many industries in the state-owned enterprises are surplus. Prices such as steel and nonferrous metals are under downward pressure," he said.
Experts said that the next "Golden September and Silver 10" seasonal factors will be less, if the PMI is still down, it may need to introduce new measures.
August manufacturing PMI contraction
As mentioned above, the manufacturing PMI contracted in August, mainly due to the large drop in production and new orders due to insufficient demand.
From the classification index, among the five sub-indices that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index and the supplier delivery time index continue to be above the critical point, and the new order index, the employee index and the raw material inventory index are still below the critical point.
This largely reflects the new demand for manufacturing, the amount of work, and the reduction in raw material stocks.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the August PMI index fell 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that there is still some downward pressure on the economy. The new orders and export orders index fell slightly, reflecting the lack of market demand; the purchase volume, import and finished goods orders index fell, reflecting the lack of corporate confidence, destocking activities continue.
He believes that after the second half of the year, the macro-control policies will further exert their strength around stable growth. Based on the expectation of policy effects, the overall economic growth situation will remain stable in the future.
However, the August production index was 51.7%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, indicating that manufacturing production continued to expand, but the growth rate slowed down.
Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Research Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, believes that the manufacturing PMI fell in August. First, some traditional industries continued to increase structural adjustment. The PMI of high-energy-consuming industries was 48.1%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. The low point since.
Second, due to the continuous development of El Niño this year, many places were affected by weather factors such as high temperature, typhoon and heavy rain. In July and August, floods occurred and some enterprises' production and operation activities slowed down. The production index was 51.7%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month and falling for two consecutive months.
Third, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and other places to increase the intensity of air pollution control, and actively slow down production, manufacturing PMI is significantly lower than the national overall level.
Fourth, the prices of bulk commodities such as crude oil continued to fall, and the domestic and international market demand for manufacturing was weak. The new order index and the new export order index were 49.7% and 47.7%, respectively, both down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and still below the critical point.
Zhao Qinghe pointed out that there are still some positive factors that continue to emerge. For example, high-tech manufacturing continued to grow steadily, with a PMI of 52.2%, which is 2.5 percentage points higher than the overall manufacturing level.
Insufficient demand becomes the biggest problem
Chen Zhongtao, a senior economist at the China Logistics Information Center, told the reporter that the survey found that the biggest problem facing the company at present is the lack of orders, reflecting the fact that the proportion of companies with reduced orders is more than half.
These companies with insufficient orders are often in the traditional industry, and these industries still occupy the bulk of industrial manufacturing. “The reduction of orders for some large companies, in addition to the excess of the industry, may also be related to restructuring reforms,†he said.
The data shows that the new manufacturing orders index for May was 50.6%, which was 50.1%, 49.9%, and 49.7% in June, July, and August, respectively.
In August, the PMI of large enterprises was 49.9%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and fell below the critical point for the first time in the year; the medium-sized enterprise PMI was 49.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, below the critical point; the small business PMI was 48.1. %, which was 1.2 percentage points higher than last month, continued to be in the contraction interval, but the contraction rate decreased.
Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to July, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 317.73 billion yuan, down 1% year-on-year, and the decline was 0.3 percentage points higher than that in January-June. The growth rate of total profit of China's holding companies was -22.1%, and that of collective enterprises was -0.1%. However, the growth rate of foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan investment enterprises and private enterprises was 3.5% and 6.5% respectively.
Li Xunlei, chief economist of Haitong Securities, believes that the next step is to accelerate the pace of restructuring and reform of large enterprises. Many large state-owned enterprises should withdraw from the competitive field. From a policy perspective, it should give better financing conditions to private enterprises.
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