Maleic anhydride market has not bottomed

In June, domestic maleic anhydride prices continued to decline slightly. In addition to the blind adjustment of natural maleic anhydride companies, the fluctuations in crude oil prices have also stimulated their prices to go lower. At present, maleic anhydride market is facing three major difficulties. Bearishness is still the mainstream intention of market players. It is expected that pessimism will lead to cautious demand and limited market volume. The recent market quotation is only around 10,000 yuan (t price, the same below).

As of the end of last week, the Shanxi market has yet to form a mainstream offer. The selling price is expected to be 9600 to 9700 yuan. It is difficult to ship at high levels and the overall demand is weak. The industry is generally bearish on the demand for maleic anhydride. Therefore, the local maleic anhydride sales pressure is slightly higher. Individual companies have more inventories; Fujian market is weak and stable, with mainstream quotes at RMB 10,100 to RMB 10,200. Downstream pick-ups are limited, bearish expectations remain, suppliers continue to look for buying, and acceptors wait and see; the Hebei market lacks a mainstream report. The disk, sporadic offer is at 10,100 yuan, and the selling price is at 9800 yuan.

Crude oil fell deeper to suppress prices May 6th, the international crude oil ** appeared rare drop, Brent tumbled 10 US dollars / barrel, WTI plummeted 9.44 US dollars / barrel. Coupled with the Fed's second round of quantitative easing (QE2) coming to an end, investors’ optimism about the dollar began to spread, and dollar-denominated commodities were repeatedly frustrated. Maleic anhydride and its related products such as styrene, phthalic anhydride, and ethylene glycol all entered the down channel, and unsaturated resin in downstream products also experienced a large increase in downward pressure and pulled maleic anhydride into a downward trend on the same day. After that, as international crude oil plummeted for five consecutive trading days, maleic anhydride high-priced sources were squeezed out of the market. Prices of RMB 10,800 to RMB 11,000 (t price, the same below) were short-lived, and the market price quickly declined to 10,400 to 10,500 yuan and fell to 10,400. The market gained support after the dollar and maleic anhydride was trimmed during this period. However, due to the impact of crude oil, and the reduction of rumors, the demand was hit again. At the same time, the downstream unsaturated resin market resisted, and the maleic anhydride market fell significantly.

The decline in oil and benzene boosted the downturn If the international oil price plummeted was the trigger for the decline of maleic anhydride, the reduction of petroleum benzene in the upstream product would undoubtedly play a role in fueling this. On May 12th, the domestic oil-and-gasoline refinery lowered 150 yuan. Less than a week of maleic anhydride re-entered the decline channel; on May 18, domestic prices fell by another 200 yuan. Maleic anhydride pessimistically expected to increase, and demand was severely frustrated. The sentiment of buying up and killing has pushed maleic anhydride further down. In addition, some users of maleic anhydride in the Yangtze River Delta received a power cut notice. The Yangtze River Delta is a region with a large amount of maleic anhydride. Unsaturated resin is also a high-energy-consuming enterprise. Electricity curtailment is on the way and the demand for maleic anhydride will have a big impact. The electricity shortage problem in the Yangtze River Delta region is plaguing the entire industrial chain, and the downstream production facilities are also facing a negative situation. This trend further hinders the downstream idea of ​​an order.

The three major obstacles hinder the rebound. June is the traditional off-season for the maleic anhydride market. Maleic anhydride downstream unsaturated resin companies will experience a shutdown phenomenon. Due to the lack of improvement in demand in the coming January, the downstream downstream is very cautious about taking maleic anhydride, and the demand is weak. It will be the first difficulty faced by maleic anhydride; secondly, the pessimistic expectation of international crude oil has fueled the wait-and-see atmosphere of the industry, coupled with the overall unfavorableness of the entire chemical market, which suppresses the rebound of maleic anhydride prices; again, the recent partial maleic anhydride method. The start of the 1,4-butanediol (BDO) plant is believed to help the maleic anhydride get out of trouble, but in fact BDO is now difficult for the mud bodhisattva to cross the river. The data shows that the recent price decline has exceeded 14.28%, and the recent acetylene method BDO, The production of BDO by maleic anhydride method is far greater than required. There will be a large drop in the later period, and the support for maleic anhydride is far from enough. This is undoubtedly the third hardship faced by maleic anhydride. If you want to survive these three hurdles, it is imperative for companies to cut production appropriately.

The high-end domestic maleic anhydride prices continued to shrink downwards. Investors and downstream users were generally expected to decline. Market buying was scarce and the transaction atmosphere was deserted. At the same time, the recent purchase of downstream unsaturated resin was not active and the demand improved, resulting in the local inventory of maleic anhydride. Rising pressure increases. In the future, the bearish atmosphere of the maleic anhydride market remains. It is expected that the following behavior will continue to dominate the market.