Photovoltaic industry: it has entered the cold winter and walked out of the predicament

The European debt crisis has intensified and the global PV market demand has shrunk rapidly. The price of photovoltaic modules and basic raw materials polysilicon continues to dive. How do Chinese PV companies, which are leading in the global PV industry, respond to the grim situation? The photovoltaic industry, which was once in full swing, seems to enter the winter overnight. As of November 24, the third quarter earnings reports of 10 PV companies listed in the US were released. The data shows that there are 8 companies with net profit losses in the third quarter, of which Suntech topped the list with a net loss of $116.4 million in the third quarter. The profits of the two profitable companies also fell sharply by nearly 70% compared with the same period last year. Affected by the weak PV market, many companies' share prices have fallen by more than 70% from a year ago. In the past few months, more than 50 companies in China's PV industry, which account for more than 60% of the global production capacity, have fallen. Under the violent price fluctuations, the entire industry chain was in a downturn. Overcapacity market shrinks trade barriers Three mountains press the photovoltaic industry into the 21st century, in the context of global climate change and conventional energy shortages, solar power is increasingly sought after by investors. Since 2006, China's PV industry investment has remained high under the dual stimulation of national policies and market enthusiasm. At present, the output of only photovoltaic cells in China is 2.5 million kilowatts, ranking first in the world. According to incomplete statistics, as of the first half of this year, the national polysilicon production capacity has exceeded 220,000 tons / year, while the world in 2012 is expected to be less than 100,000 tons. Last year, the world produced a total of 23.9GW (1 billion watts) of photovoltaic products, while the demand for new installed capacity is only about 16.6GW, China's production accounts for about half. The market has been so hot that it has attracted a lot of investment in production capacity. At present, the total production capacity of photovoltaic cells and component manufacturers in China has reached about 30GW. Although the global installed capacity can be increased to 20GW this year, it still has a considerable gap with the total capacity. The main export market of China's PV industry is in Europe. However, due to the deteriorating European debt crisis, demand in Europe has dropped sharply this year. The price of PV modules has fallen by more than 50%. More than 80% of the production capacity depends on the situation of Chinese PV companies digested by the European market. Getting worse. In mid-November, the German Ministry of Economic Affairs proposed to limit the installation of new photovoltaic power generation to 1GW next year to help control the government's high subsidies for photovoltaic power generation. This is more than the market expectation that the country's new installed capacity of more than 5GW this year has dropped significantly. Although the final adoption and implementation has not yet been determined, this news is a good thing for domestic PV companies. To make matters worse, on October 19th, a US PV company and six other companies filed a trade complaint with the US Department of Commerce and the US International Trade Commission, demanding that the US government conduct a "double-reverse" investigation on Chinese solar cells exported to the United States. Impose more than 100% of anti-dumping duties. In early November, the US Department of Commerce launched an anti-dumping and countervailing investigation procedure for China's US solar cells (boards). This is the first time the US has launched a “double-reverse” investigation on China's clean energy products, which may lead to US imports of solar energy from China. The panel imposes a high tax. The industry believes that the current European debt crisis is intensifying, and countries have also drastically cut subsidies for photovoltaics. In the short term, the European PV market is hard to see. The global economic downturn has also led to an escalation of trade protectionism, and it is increasingly difficult for PV companies to expand overseas markets. Previously, some experts analyzed that due to overcapacity, the domestic PV industry will ushered in the adjustment of the entire industry in 2014, but from the current situation, this adjustment will be advanced to 2012. Policy guidance to expand the construction of domestic demand brand, out of the predicament, but also rely on hard work and internal strength This year, Europe and other major PV market subsidy policy swings, has already hit China's photovoltaic enterprises. In this context, the most urgent need is to bring Chinese PV companies on the verge of crisis to a healthy development track. In August this year, the National Development and Reform Commission officially promulgated the "Policy for Improving the On-grid Price of Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation". Some experts pointed out that the introduction of this policy can be said to be a matter of course, to inject a "cardiotonic agent" into domestic PV companies. The introduction of the national unified on-grid tariff will definitely promote the vigorous development of the domestic PV application market, and clarify the electricity price standard and construction period, which will enable China's solar photovoltaic power station construction to develop in a more orderly and benign direction. The current PV module prices have fallen sharply, and the modularization has increased the speed of power station construction. The introduction of the on-grid tariff policy will undoubtedly become an important “pushing hand” to accelerate the development of photovoltaic applications. "This kind of promotion will benefit the entire PV industry chain." The next step is to see who is strong in the PV industry, running fast and going for a long time. Not only that, but we also have to see that in the severe situation of domestic battery and module production capacity of 30GW, the corresponding domestic installation is almost zero: in 2010, the global installed capacity is 17GW, and China is 800MW, only 2% of the world. This is not only the helplessness faced by China's PV companies, but also can be seen as a huge space for the development of China's PV companies in the future. Experts believe that in the past, the development of photovoltaic enterprises relied on scale, and the situation of production capacity needed to be changed. In the future, the development direction must focus on independent innovation and cost control, and reduce the cost to commercial power generation, affordable Internet access, and go to the homes of ordinary people. Some Japanese scientists predict that the future utilization rate of solar cells for solar cells is expected to increase to 25%, and the service life can reach 35 to 40 years. At present, the PV conversion rate is still far from achieving this goal. How to improve solar energy utilization is also the potential for the development of the photovoltaic industry. Some people predict that in another 8 to 10 years, photovoltaic power generation will achieve parity online, and the impact of policies will gradually decrease. This will be a new round of industrial development. "This PV industry has suffered from a cold winter, which is actually a normal industrial cycle adjustment." Yingli Group Chairman Miao Liansheng said in an interview with this reporter in November that after this round of industry adjustment, the competition of PV companies will be decided. Large-scale economic benefits, innovation capabilities, brand, team support and other soft competition of enterprises. This also determines that Chinese PV leading enterprises, including Yingli, must firmly grasp this “winter break” and complete the enterprise transformation from scale expansion to brand promotion. Miao Liansheng believes that only by improving the transformation and grasping the opportunity of market development, can China's leading PV companies that are leading the global PV industry through scale and cost advantages continue to stand in this cold.

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