Abstract At present, the economic data is good, mainly due to lack of short-term inventory, such as de-capacity and destocking, which in turn leads to an increase in industrial product prices, which is related to the acceleration of replenishment of enterprises. "So the current data is better, only cautiously optimistic. &...
At present, the economic data is good, mainly due to lack of short-term inventory, such as de-capacity and destocking, which in turn leads to an increase in industrial product prices, which is related to the acceleration of replenishment of enterprises. "So the current data is better, only cautiously optimistic." "At present, the economy is only rebounding, not reversing." On March 29, Guo Kesha, director of the Center for Economic Policy Research of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in the first quarter of the economy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
The National Bureau of Statistics will release the first quarter economic data on April 17. According to the data from January to February, fiscal revenue, investment, industry, and import and export growth have all accelerated, especially the performance of private investment is more eye-catching. However, the growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods has slowed slightly.
Data show that in January-February, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points faster than that in December 2016. In addition, the national service industry production index increased by 8.2% year-on-year in January-February, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than that in December 2016, and 0.1 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year.
Considering that the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year was 6.8%, major institutions generally believe that the economy in the first quarter is better than expected. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Financial and Economics Institute released a forecast analysis on March 29 that the economic growth rate in the first quarter was 6.8%, which was in line with the fourth quarter of last year. But the economy also has downward pressure, which is due to the decline in the growth rate of real estate and private investment, as well as debt defaults. In addition, the strengthening of trade protectionism in some developed countries may also affect China’s exports.
Guo Kesha believes that the current economic data is good, mainly due to lack of short-term inventory, such as de-capacity and destocking, which in turn leads to an increase in industrial product prices, which is related to the acceleration of replenishment of enterprises. However, in the second half of the year, economic growth may slow down, and next year, the downward pressure on the economy will increase again. "So the current data is better, only cautiously optimistic." Guo Kesha believes.
Economic growth is better than expected
In the first two months of this year, a lot of economic data showed a rapid growth. This is highlighted by the rapid rise in data such as fiscal revenues and exports.
For example, in January-February, the national general public budget revenue was 3,145.4 billion yuan, an increase of 406.9 billion yuan over the same period of last year, an increase of 14.9%, which was significantly higher than the year-on-year growth of 4.5%.
In terms of exports, in January-February, the total volume of imports and exports was 3,890 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and the growth rate was 15.7 percentage points higher than that of December last year. Among them, the export was 2,091.8 billion yuan, an increase of 11.0%, and was also significantly higher than the growth rate of 0.6% in December last year. In January-February, the national fixed asset investment and industrial growth rate also accelerated.
However, this does not mean that the economy has to enter a new cycle.
Su Jian, a professor at Peking University School of Economics, believes that the national economic growth rate this year is better than expected, but the economy has not entered a new cycle of recovery.
"At any time, there will be upward momentum and downward pressure, mainly to see which is more prominent. The current situation seems certain that the pressure on the economic downturn is relatively large," he said.
According to the understanding, the growth rate of various industries accounting for GDP by the National Bureau of Statistics has not grown too fast. For example, in January-February 2017, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points faster than that in December 2016, but still at around 6%. In January-February, the service industry production index increased by 8.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was only 0.1 percentage points higher than that of December last year.
As the service industry accounts for more than half of the entire economy, industry accounts for about 40%, which indicates that the economic growth rate in the first quarter of this year may still be around 6.7% or 6.8%, and it is unlikely to return to more than 7%.
Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of the Monita research think tank, also pointed out that the current industrial profits are relatively good, mainly reflected in the upstream industries, which have more state-owned enterprises. In the downstream industry, there are many private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises. As the overcapacity in these areas is still serious, the increase in industrial profits has actually increased the bargaining power of the upstream industry to the downstream industries.
However, in the medium and long term, private enterprises are still not willing to invest. "The current economy is still only cautiously optimistic," he said.
According to the understanding, in the first two months of this year, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 1,015.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.5%, which was significantly higher than the growth rate of 8.5% in the whole year. However, industrial profits have grown rapidly, mainly in a few industries.
For example, in January and February, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 21.1 times, the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 1.2 times, and the general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 23.3%.
Land price increase affects investment effect
On March 29, Guo Kesha pointed out that the current downward pressure on the economy is still large. The economic growth rate rebounded in the fourth quarter of last year and may continue into the first half of this year. At present, it is still necessary to increase infrastructure investment to offset the downward pressure on real estate.
Guo Kesha believes that it is important to note that the current tightening regulation policy cannot be adopted.
For example, if monetary policy is tightened, it will have a role in curbing real estate speculation, but it will also have a negative impact on the real economy. "The original monetary policy is a total policy, but China can adopt structural policy measures, such as increasing financial support for the real economy. It should increase the structural regulation of monetary policy." Guo Kesha suggested.
According to the understanding, in January-February 2017, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 4.137 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.8 percentage points higher than that of the whole year.
The most notable of these is infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply). The investment in January-February reached 831.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.3%, and the growth rate was 9.9 percentage points higher than that of last year. .
However, it should be noted that accelerating investment does not necessarily drive economic growth. The main reason is that the land cost in the investment is high.
Wang Hongyu, deputy director of the Comprehensive Department of the China Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the ex-factory price of industrial production and the rise in real estate prices have led to an increase in the price of fixed-asset investment, while large amounts of funds have been absorbed in the non-productive second-hand asset market, further eroding the formation of fixed-asset investment. Capital formation rate (fixed capital formation is one of the economic troikas from the perspective of aggregate demand, and the other two are consumption and net exports), which is not conducive to the potential economic growth rate.
According to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, in the past, because of the low land price, most of the investment funds formed fixed assets (fixed capital formation), which means that investment has a great effect on the economy.
However, investment growth is still fast now, and the pulling effect on the economy is limited. An interesting example is that many provinces in the west have annual investment exceeding GDP, and the annual growth rate has even reached more than 20%, but the economic growth rate is only about 10%.
Su Jian pointed out that high-end manufacturing is sensitive to land prices. For example, a workshop requires a large area of ​​land, so the increase in land prices has a crowding out effect on high-end manufacturing. If you want to rely on real estate to drive the economy, it will actually hurt high-end manufacturing.
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