The domestic potash fertilizer market is expected to be short-term "good price"

Recently, domestic potash fertilizer prices have continued to rise, driven by successive price hikes by international potash giants. According to our survey, at present, domestic potash fertilizer buyers begin to experience difficulties in procurement. We believe that with the increasing shortage of potash supply, domestic potash prices may follow international prices.

The data we have obtained shows that in 2010 China's apparent consumption of potassium fertilizer (output plus net imports) was about 9.24 million tons, and the import dependency was about 58%. As domestic potassium fertilizers are heavily dependent on imports, their prices are also more dependent on international prices.

The statistics we have obtained show that in March of this year, potash stocks in North America fell to 1.79 million tons, which is a decrease of 7% from the same period of last year and a decrease of 26% from the average inventory in the past five years. The rapid decline in stocks boosted international potash prices. The price of potassium fertilizer in Brazil and Southeast Asia has reached 520 US dollars/ton recently, which has increased by nearly 100 US dollars/ton from the beginning of the year.

It is noteworthy that India has now surpassed China to become the world's largest potash fertilizer importing country. The Indian potash negotiations are expected to be higher than China's $400/ton over 10% in the first half of 2011. In the second half of the year, potash fertilizer negotiations in China are about to start, which is expected to be higher than the price of negotiations in India.

Affected by the international price of potash fertilizer, domestic potash fertilizer prices have started to increase. Salt Lake Potash raised the ex-factory price by RMB 100/ton last week, and the delivery price has reached RMB 3,000/ton. Our survey shows that at present, domestic downstream procurement companies have begun to face difficulties in procurement, and large-scale manufacturers and traders have begun to sell goods and reluctant sellers. This has tightened the supply of the entire domestic market, and some small plants have started to adjust prices.