The key to de-capacity lies in the marketization of public resource allocation

De-capacity is listed as the primary task of supply-side structural reforms. The main industries involved include steel, coal, cement, electrolytic aluminum, flat glass, and ships. The process of de-capacity also involves complex aspects such as finance, finance, people's livelihood and social stability. Pressure is imperative. How to “go” the production capacity, how “non-performing” non-performing assets are, and how “excellent” operating mechanisms are are issues that are imminent. To this end, Nanfang Daily reporter interviewed Zhao Changwen, minister of industry economic research at the State Council Development Research Center.

Long-term excess capacity will affect macroeconomic stability

Nanfang Daily: De-capacity is listed as the primary task of supply-side structural reforms. How do you determine which capacity is to be removed?

Zhao Changwen: There are two core points here. One is the definition of a zombie enterprise. The other is to screen out production capacity that does not meet the development direction through the four criteria of safety, environmental protection, quality, and energy consumption. The State Council respectively issued guidance on the overcapacity of the steel industry and the coal industry, which stipulates that starting from 2016, the crude steel production capacity should be reduced by 100 million to 150 million tons in 5 years; reducing the coal industry by 3 to 5 years The production capacity is about 500 million tons, and the reduction is about 500 million tons, and a long-term exit mechanism is established. In these two industries, the standards for determining the production capacity to be reduced are mainly determined by following the above two core points.

Nanfang Daily: How to "go" production capacity, what measures will be taken?

Zhao Changwen: It mainly includes strict controls on new construction, mergers and reorganizations, bankruptcy liquidation, or conversion into new supply through product and technological innovation.

Nanfang Daily: If the overcapacity can not be resolved for a long time, what are the specific risks?

Zhao Changwen: Long-term excess production capacity is not conducive to medium-to-long-term growth, which may lengthen the time for the Chinese economy to bottom out. Although the overcapacity is not a macro concept, due to the serious surplus, for example, the utilization rate of the steel and coal industries is only 70% and 65%. It has a large impact on the macro economy, mainly due to overcapacity and continuous decline in industry prices. This will exacerbate deflation, leading to long-term downward pressure on China's PPI; excess capacity also makes it difficult for some bad debts to surface, which is not conducive to improving the credit risk pricing mechanism, will increase financial risks, and is not conducive to the development of the financial market.

Central 100 billion yuan special adjustment funds for structural adjustment of industrial enterprises

Nanfang Daily: In the short term, what solutions will be adopted for capacity reduction? What is the most effective way?

Zhao Changwen: In 2013, State Council No. 41 document proposed the “four batches” solution: “Transfer one batch of foreign investment, digest one batch by expanding domestic demand, resolve one batch through mergers and reorganizations, and eliminate one batch by raising standards”. .

The outdated production capacity in the “four batches” is the most realistic. But there is also a problem. The excess production capacity is not necessarily backward production capacity.

"Digestion of a batch" depends on how big the domestic market is. A basic judgment is that the overwhelming majority of overcapacity industries and particularly heavy chemical industries have not had the absolute demand for their products after China entered the late stage of industrialization, or that the peak demand and the ceiling of the industry are approaching. However, it is still possible to encourage some "digestion" directions, such as engaging in steel-structured houses and increasing the use of housing steel. But on the whole, the space for this digestion is still relatively limited.

Nanfang Daily: How to deal with the expenses of the company's employees?

Zhao Changwen: The State Council’s “Opinions on the Iron and Steel Industry Resolving Surplus Capacity to Realize the Development of Poverty” and “Opinions on the Coal Industry Resolving Surplus Capacity to Realize the Development of Poverty” have proposed the establishment of supporting policies including finance, finance, and finance. If the central government decides to set up a special award fund for structural adjustment of industrial enterprises, the scale of funds will be 100 billion yuan for two years. It is used to solve the problem of resettlement of employees, solve problems of resettlement, transfer of jobs, and skills training.