What is the future of China's PV market in 2018 under negative growth?

In 2018, China's PV market will usher in the first negative growth in new installed capacity, which is almost a foregone conclusion.

Four months ago, if someone made the above judgment, it would definitely be attacked by the entire industry group: you must be discouraged by smothering the photovoltaics. However, in just four months, pessimism shrouded the entire industry from top to bottom, in one fell swoop to reverse the previous triumph.

According to the judgment of SOLARZOOM think tank in mid-January 2018, the overall demand of the global PV market keeps rising, but the Chinese market may be negatively affected by the policy, and the negative growth forecast of 51.4GW is proposed for the first time. A legendary rumor spread in February. "Distributed Power Generation Management Measures (Draft for Comment)", although the text is not published, but the meaning is clear, the National Energy Administration will strengthen the management of distributed photovoltaics, and the "distributed projects to be included in the list of subsidies" is often on the market. Expected to fall, Wang Bohua, vice chairman and secretary general of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said on different occasions that with reference to policies, market capacity, and international and domestic market variables, new PV installations will not exceed 45 GW in 2018; Researcher Wang Sicheng, deputy director of the Photovoltaic Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, has similar judgments... Various research institutions and experts have begun to cut down the 2018 installed capacity expectations.

Unlike the market expectations of downloading, PV manufacturing capacity continues to expand. According to the public information, GCL-Poly's polysilicon production base with a total capacity of 60,000 tons in Xinjiang will complete 40,000 tons of production in the first two phases and 9 billion monocrystalline silicon projects in Qujing in 2018; According to the development plan of the company's monocrystalline wafer business from 2018 to 2020, based on the silicon wafer production capacity of 15GW at the end of 2017, the monocrystalline silicon wafer production capacity will reach 28GW by the end of 2018 and reach 45GW by the end of 2020. In April, another 1.2 billion will be announced in Chuxiong. Monocrystalline silicon wafer project; Zhonghuan said that it will realize a total production capacity of 23GW of solar-grade monocrystalline silicon materials by the end of 2018; Tongwei's planned 50,000 tons of Baotou and Leshan 50,000 tons of high-purity polysilicon projects will also be completed in 2018. The first phase of production has reached a total capacity of 50,000 tons... The increasing production capacity is getting more and more pessimistic market expectations, and China's PV industry has reached a key node that must re-plan the market.

"false" prosperity in the first quarter

On April 24, the National Energy Administration held a press conference in Beijing. Li Chuangjun, deputy director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Department, announced the operation of photovoltaic power generation in the first quarter of 2018. Li Chuangjun introduced that the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the first quarter was 9.65 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 22%, including 1.97 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power plants, down 64% year-on-year; distributed photovoltaics of 7.685 million kilowatts, an increase of 217%. The development of distributed photovoltaics continues to accelerate. The provinces with installed capacity of more than 1 million kilowatts are Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang. The newly added capacity is 1.11 million kilowatts, 1.034 million kilowatts, 1.032 million kilowatts and 1.021 million kilowatts. New PV installations accounted for 54.5% of the country.

However, some insiders revealed that 9.65GW of new installed capacity is rich in water, including a considerable number of projects that have been completed by the end of 2017. Although the entire first quarter experienced a number of prestigious winners bidding for several projects, the installed market was not optimistic and underemployed. The household market, which is generally optimistic, is also weak. The sales of an inverter manufacturer revealed that only 800 households were used in Zhejiang households in the first quarter, compared with three times more in the same period last year... and the same situation is not only Zhejiang Province. In the past two years, various chaos in the household market has begun to affect the market.

New overseas demand: India stands out, Europe and the United States exit the top ten

On April 25th, at the “Shanghai New Energy Distributed Investment and Financing Summit” held by Energy No. 1, Zou Xiyuan, senior executive of GCL Integrated, said that to consume the expanding capacity, going out is the top priority of major brands. It has reached the point of "imminent".

Zou Xiyuan focused on GCL's investigation and understanding of the Indian market. At present, the Indian government's PV installation plan is to install 100GW by 2022: (In 2017, India has achieved 9.6GW of new installed capacity, which is twice as much as in 2016, and the installed capacity in the next year is 12~17.5GW.) The public utility project plans to install 60GW. 20GW is promoted by megawatt-scale solar parks built in 33 states, 20GW is driven by state-owned enterprises (CPSU, etc.), and the remaining 20GW is driven by various plans; roof distributed projects are planned to be installed at 40GW, and the state's net measurement policies are mainly promoted. At present, the government is still in need of support from international investment institutions. Zou Xiyuan believes that India will be the number one buyer of China's photovoltaics, no matter from the macroeconomic environment or market potential. In view of India's strong subsidies and small double-risk risks, India is a leader in emerging markets. .

The traditional European and American markets are gradually shrinking in the increasingly fierce trade disputes. In particular, before the implementation of the US 201 Act, a large number of stocks (such as data indicating that this number reached 5GW) emerged. The export to the United States in the first quarter was greatly reduced. It is unlikely that the uncertainty of the US market will quickly reverse the market decline in a short period of time. The European market is also continuing to languish.

The export data in the first quarter supported this judgment from the side. India accounted for 27.5% of the total export value of 2.73 billion US dollars. Since then, Japan, South Korea, Malay, Mexico, Brazil, etc. are closely followed by the top ten. There is no shadow in Europe and the United States in the market. In this situation, still relying on past experience, only staring at the European and American markets, ignoring the layout and research of emerging markets such as India, Southeast Asia, Central and South America, and "going out" has no way.

Domestic market: distributed will encounter strict control, fight low price to become mainstream

Wang Bohua once helped to calculate the new installed capacity in 2018: the average power station indicator of 14.4GW in 2017, about 6-7GW will grab 630 in 2018; the third batch of 5GW of the front runner project needs to be connected to the grid before the end of the year. About 1GW of the second batch will be connected to the grid in 2018; PV poverty alleviation has already issued 4.18GW; seven unrestricted areas are all orange in 2018, and it is expected that the index will not exceed 1GW in 2018; distributed as the only market The export is expected to be 6GW, and it is highly probable that the distribution of industrial and commercial full-scale Internet access will be included in the scale management. The neutral forecast is 12GW.

That is to say, the installed capacity in 2018 is so much: 7+6+4.18+1+6+12=36.18GW, and the largest share of distributed (including industrial and commercial distribution) will gradually replace the ordinary photovoltaic power station to become the future domestic. The main force of new installations, and its uncertainty caused by the policy is the biggest. At the "3rd Century PV Conference" on the 27th, Wang Bohua optimistically estimated that the installed capacity of 45GW in 2018 is also emphasized that "there is no major change in the distributed PV policy", but the expectation is not optimistic.

On the 24th, Li Chuangjun revealed at the press conference that the Energy Bureau will introduce a policy to strictly control distributed photovoltaics. The scale of the distributed plan in 1018 is 10 GW, combined with the previous "Distributed Power Generation Management Measures (Draft for Comment)" on the scale of distributed projects. And the various qualifications of the contractor are clear, and the development of distributed development into planning management becomes inevitable.

The scale of ordinary power stations has not yet been clarified. The first construction will stop first, and the distribution will begin to be managed on a large scale. The front runners and poverty alleviation plans are also unlikely to open unrestrictedly. The low-speed development of the domestic market and the increasingly large capacity will be violently conflicted. Foreseeing future low prices will be the norm.

Up to now, it can be seen from the 9 front-runner projects that have already been opened. The lowest price of 0.61 yuan/kWh was sensational when the company broke out last year. The lowest price of 0.31 yuan/kWh this year has not been noticed. From the Lunar New Year to the present, Longji has lowered the price of single crystal several times, and the price of polycrystalline has also fallen. Some insiders speculate that the price of 60 polycrystalline components in the middle of the year may fall below 2.5 yuan/W, and the price has reached the bayonet. To the front. The inverter market is even more fierce. In the first quarter of the inverter market dominated by Huawei, the price competition has begun. In addition, four second-line inverter manufacturers will be listed on the IPO this year, and the performance data is “falling down”. ".

The advantages of Dachang in terms of technology, cost and even financing are extremely obvious in this market environment; small and medium-sized enterprises that are under-prepared will once again welcome the industry to reshuffle. 2018, is there still a turning point in the winter? Chinese PV companies in the negative growth situation need more thinking.

Swimming Pool Glass Mosaic Tiles

It's hard to imagine a swimming pool without tile: Whether you're going for a minimalist-meets-industrial look or an over-the-top tropical oasis, the right pool tile can take your design to the next level.
But there's more to decorative pool tile than meets the eye. In addition to adding a splash of color or a unique, eye-catching texture to your swimming pool, tile also helps protect your pool finish -- particularly along the waterline?where stains and mineral buildup can create maintenance headaches.
Of course, when it comes to pool tile, you have lots of choices: Do you want large, ceramic tiles or a mosaic of tiny, glass tiles? Do you want modern pool tile or something more traditional? Is cost a factor? What size pool tile appeals to you the most?
In this Guide, we'll take a look at some of the main choices you'll need to make when selecting your ideal pool tile.

About our company:

Swimming Pool,Pool Tile,Glass Tiles,Mosaics,Glass Mosaic Tile

Gong Loon Jadeite Manufacture Co.,Ltd , https://www.bluebird-mosaic.com