In April-May 2018, the raw paper market staged another thrilling price increase, especially the corrugated paper with the largest amount of packaging paper. The price soared to nearly 6,000 yuan/ton, which is rare, such as cardboard paper and whiteboard paper. Following this, packaging paper rose by more than a thousand yuan per ton, which is tantamount to the "great earthquake" in the packaging industry, which has caused many corrugated packaging companies to be uneasy, unprepared, and even bitter.
Many corrugated packaging enterprises have a steady decline in the market price of raw paper in March 2018. In addition, some stocks were reserved before the Spring Festival in 2018. Therefore, after the production and consumption, there is a wait-and-see attitude and no timely replenishment of stocks. At the same time, most of the major packaging contracts were signed in March. In April, they could only sell at low prices and sell at low prices. Obviously, they earned money at a loss. This kind of passive situation is "should not be called every day, called the ground is not working", and can only rely on the strength of the enterprise itself. Many corrugated packaging companies screamed that "the original paper could not be used to raise prices," but they still joined the ranks of the army that snapped up the original paper. For a time, the raw paper market was full of smoke, and a battle for the original paper became more and more fierce. The vehicles shipped by the paper mills were long queued up late. Some enterprises sent money later, and the original paper was sent to other customers, and they had to wait for the number.
However, from the end of May to the beginning of June 2018, the price of raw paper has dropped slightly by 50-80 yuan/ton. At this moment, the hot raw paper market has cooled down, which has caused some corrugated packaging enterprises to wait and see whether to buy or not. Will the base paper rise or fall in the second half of the year?
First, the status quo: risk strikes, the situation of paper and packaging industry is not optimistic
Recently, due to factors such as the depreciation of the renminbi, the continuous high pressure of environmental protection, and the rapid changes in Sino-US trade relations, the paper and packaging industry is facing many risks.
1. Environmental protection continues to be high pressure. Since entering 2018, environmental protection pressure has been pressing step by step. In the past two months alone, a number of environmental protection policies have been promulgated. At present, the intensive supervision of the key areas of the Blue Sky Defence War in 2018-2019 has begun. The 200 inspection teams inspected the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the surrounding areas, the 11 cities of the Plains of the Plains, and the Yangtze River Delta in accordance with the work plan.
At the same time, the National Emissions License Management Information Platform notified 559 paper companies that did not submit implementation reports as required. Guangdong, Shaanxi, Hubei, Hunan, Tianjin and other provinces and cities have issued production plans for shutting down, limiting production and peak production. These will put a lot of pressure on the production of paper and packaging companies.
2. Renminbi depreciation. After the fourth quarter of 2016, the paper industry entered the boom cycle, and the price of wood pulp was highly correlated with the price of copper and double-adhesive paper. After the price of wood pulp rose or fell, the price of paper basically changed in the same direction. Therefore, the depreciation of the RMB is equivalent to the increase in the price of wood pulp.
In terms of waste paper, 45% of China's imported waste paper comes from the United States, while 61% of US export waste paper is sold to China. Affected by the depreciation of the Renminbi, the amount of US waste purchased in the same size will be reduced compared to the previous period. As a result, the cost of imported raw materials for paper mills may rise.
3. Sino-US trade relations have changed dramatically. Unlike the first batch of $50 billion, this time, pulp, paper and cardboard and paper products were included in the list, with a total of 223 sub-products, covering almost all paper products exported by China to the United States, including newsprint and cultural paper. , coated paper, wrapping paper, specialty paper, household paper, etc. According to published data, in 2017, the US category imported US$3.2 billion from China. This is a part that directly affects the paper industry in China.
Considering that the $200 billion tariff list focuses on consumer products dominated by China's light industry, this will have a large indirect impact on China's packaging paper and print industry.
At the same time, it is expected that China will adopt counter-measures to increase tariffs on US imports, such as paper pulp, waste paper and other papermaking materials, and even further reduce import quotas, which will have a greater impact on the cost of the entire domestic paper industry.
Second, the question: Will the price of raw paper fall or fall in the next half year?
In response to the slight decline in the price of raw paper from late May to early June 2018, there are many opinions in the industry.
Some said that it may rise as sharply as 2017, and it must be a sharp drop. The reason is: Nowadays, various corrugated packaging enterprises are already full of stocks. In addition, the southern market has entered the low season of packaging in June. Even in the northern market where the packaging market is strong, due to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit held in early June, the manufacturing companies around Qingdao are all After being included in the production limit and production stoppage period, the demand for corrugated base paper was weak, and the stocks of various paper mills increased sharply, and the warehouse capacity had to be reduced.
Some said that the price of raw paper may rise to a new high. The reason is: the corrugated packaging market looks dull, in fact, it is suppressed. A large number of demand is covered by the current phenomenon of production stoppage and limited production. In the second half of the year, the manufacturing industry will see a surge of more than two times, and the demand for packaging materials will inevitably increase. The stock of raw paper of various corrugated packaging enterprises is generally around 3,000-5,000 tons. This inventory is only less than two weeks of production. When the packaging orders increase rapidly, it is the time when the original paper rises.
In addition, it may be maintained at the current price level, even if it is floating or down, it will not exceed 100 yuan / ton. The reason is: the state has already loosened the policy of importing “American wasteâ€. The domestic waste paper prices have declined to varying degrees. The falling prices of raw materials have reduced the cost of papermaking enterprises, and the price of natural raw paper will also stabilize or decline.
All kinds of analysis seem to make sense, but which kind of argument is in line with the law of the market? In other words, who said it is closer to reality, more reliable? Or whether the price of raw paper in the next six months is "true fall" or "false fall" "What?"
Paper mill person: When the price increase does not know, maybe the boss will rise by one phone call!
From late May to early June 2018, the prices of raw paper for packaging of various papermaking enterprises have been lowered to varying degrees. How about the price of raw paper in the second half of the year? Recently, this issue has been written to Xiaolong, Chenming, Century Sunshine, and Mountain. Eagle and Lee & Man's paper industry sales elites to ask for advice. The answer is: We can't see the market for this month, I said it for half a year!
Although this statement has ridiculous and self-deprecating changes in the current raw paper market, it also shows the uncertainty of the raw paper market. Everyone agrees that no matter whether there is uncertainty or not, there are rules to follow, and the original paper market is no exception. Analyze and judge the market situation of the base paper, look at the raw material market of papermaking; secondly, see the state's policy on importing “solid wasteâ€; third, look at the demand of the packaging market; fourth, look at the sales strategy of various paper companies; and see the import of packaging paper. the amount.
In terms of waste paper, due to the decline in the national waste market index, the overall trend of national waste has been lower. Although a small number of quotas have been gradually issued in subsequent batches, it is not expected that there will be a complete shortage of foreign waste import quotas. In addition, the use of new materials by paper companies has also increased R&D investment, and crop straws, reeds, etc. can replace waste paper as raw materials. As for whether the price of the subsequent waste paper will change face, we can only wait and see.
In the packaging market, in recent years, the corrugated packaging market has been on the rise. Especially with the development of e-commerce, logistics and express delivery, even various agricultural products, fruits and other agricultural products are also packaged in corrugated box. Comprehensive analysis, in the second half of 2018, the demand for packaging market has risen steadily, the production capacity of industrial enterprises using packaging materials has been expanding, and new manufacturing enterprises are gradually increasing. In addition, various agricultural products such as fruits and vegetables, grain and oil are better than 2017. The rise of high-tech farms has added a fire to the exuberant packaging market. More importantly, export commodities that were suppressed by the “trade war†before May are expected to accelerate growth. This is undoubtedly a very good thing for the packaging market, of course, it is bound to increase the demand for packaging base paper.
Due to the suspension of production and production of papermaking in some regions from late May to early June, the paper stocks of papermaking enterprises are relatively reduced. In response to this situation, papermaking enterprises may launch a new round of price increases. As for whether the 50 yuan or 100 yuan continues to rise, or a few hundred rises, or one step up, it depends on the choice of the paper giant and the timing of the force. If it rises to the strategic level, it should be known as the marketing strategy. In fact, the reality is that it is nothing more than to make up for the losses during the suspension. If you have the opportunity to make money, don’t you catch it, isn’t it a fool? As a paper industry official said: You have to ask me when to raise the price. Although I am the sales director, I don’t know, the company’s top management does not necessarily know. It is possible that the boss opened his eyes in the morning and raised the price on one call! How much up, maybe 100 yuan, maybe 500, 1000 yuan, this is not allowed!
Third, the probability of price increase of packaging paper in the second half of the year
The instability of the price of packaging base paper has brought stimuli and pain to the industry, forcing packaging companies to cooperate with importers to import raw paper. Since the import price is relatively lower than the domestic price, it is not only profitable, but also supplements the domestic raw paper market gap. To a certain extent, the continuous increase in the price of the base paper is suppressed, which is the advantage of the imported packaging base paper. The disadvantage is that the logistics cycle is long and the fastest time is about a month. However, from the use of imported base paper, no matter the tensile strength, ring pressure strength or bursting resistance, it can not be compared with domestic base paper. Therefore, the choice of imported base paper should be based on the characteristics of the customer's needs, and must be carefully purchased for demanding customers.
In addition, in order to solve the shortage of raw materials and reduce costs, some paper companies choose to go out and carry paper mills abroad, such as Vietnam, Myanmar and other Southeast Asian countries. These countries not only have abundant bamboo and wood resources, but also have no restrictions on waste paper resources from Japan, the United States, and Europe. What is more important is that labor costs are low, and enterprises can also enjoy the support of the national one-on-one preferential policies. Obviously, this move is very conducive to stabilizing domestic raw paper prices and alleviating the contradiction between supply and demand.
The base paper for packaging may continue to rise from July to August, and may be slightly reduced from September to October. It will continue to rise until November-December. In short, the market price of packaging base paper will still be volatile and unstable. I hope that friends in the industry will replenish stocks in time according to their business conditions and their own conditions, but it is not recommended to hoard a lot.
Finally, I remind my friends to pay attention to: At the same time pay attention to the relevant policies and regulations on national environmental protection and import of waste paper, pay close attention to the adjustment of the production status and sales policies of major paper giants, and strive to become passive.
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