Jianxun Information (06.15): Copper and aluminum recently added a “Risk Warning†column to describe the risk of long and short positions through the star image of this icon, so that investors can refer to it when dealing with open positions. In actual operation, investors need to take specific control based on their own short-medium-term trading strategies and different types of fluctuation characteristics. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ☆ The reverse run range of the new price closing may be less than 2% from the new price closing. ☆ ☆ The reverse price of the new price closing distance may be greater than 2%. ☆☆☆ The price price is reversed from the new closing price. The rate may be greater than 3%. ☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 4%. ☆☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 5%. Risk Warning: Bulls: ☆ Short Risks: ☆☆ Before the market: Eastern: Copper: LME March copper range narrow range fluctuations, in the United States announced in April after the international trade deficit of 48.3 billion US dollars hit a record high after the dollar exchange rate weakened, supporting the rebound of copper, tonight the United States will The publication of important consumer price indexes and core consumer price indices will, to a certain extent, determine the time and intensity of the Fed’s interest rate hike. In the later period, LME copper should pay attention to the US interest rate hike process and the trend of the US dollar. China's macroeconomic regulation and control effects have further manifested in the domestic economy, and the national economy has grown steadily and rapidly. However, the increase in fixed asset investment remains high, and the increase in medium and long-term loans has increased. Given the tight supply and demand conditions of coal and oil, the macro-control task is still very arduous. Whether or not it will raise interest rates in July will present great differences in the market. Given the uncertainties of the data released by the United States today, those holding copper shorts should leave the market for a time, and the arbitrage orders for aluminum-spending copper can continue to be held. The spot price of copper fell by about 200 yuan yesterday to 26000~26450. Aluminium: Whether the country will cancel or reduce the aluminum export tax rebate policy is still of concern to the market. The late export tax rebate policy, changes in electricity prices, changes in alumina prices, and domestic aluminum inventory are the main concerns. Yesterday, the spot price fell about 80 yuan to 15500~15560 yuan/ton. Ma Hongqing: The LME copper price rebounded due to the arrival of the third Wednesday, and the spot premium continued to magnify the fact that transactions based on squeezed positions will become the dominant copper market. This can be known from the current number of canceled warehouse receipts. . However, the technical charts have indicated that the outlook for copper prices is not optimistic. Copper prices after the squeeze will face greater pressure, and once the 2500 is broken, it means that the space for downward copper prices will be expanded. It is expected that Shanghai Copper CU410 will test the pressure level of 24200 on Tuesday, with further pressure at 24300. Support is at 24000. It is recommended that investors set up short positions at 24200/24300. If there is a counter- pumping price, consider further establishment of short positions. The stop loss is set at 24800. Daily commentary: He Haihai: On Friday, the US market was closed. London's basic metal prices all fell except for nickel. Currently, the holdings of London Copper continue to increase, indicating that the long-short delivery of the copper market continues to increase. LME three months copper closed at 2,555 US dollars, down 10 US dollars compared with the previous trading day, off-site copper is relatively new reported near 2,555 US dollars; Shanghai copper prices opened lower on Monday, last Friday increased stocks on the bullish confidence hit harder, The downward trend of the previous week remained unchanged. Market transactions were moderately magnified and positions were slightly increased; however, overall trading was relatively stable. Fundamentally, the negative factors of the Fed rate hike are gradually being digested and absorbed by the market, but the stronger US dollar still exerts pressure on the market. Due to the funeral held by the President of the United States, the US financial market was closed for a day on June 11th. The market lacked new news stimulus, so the overall performance of the market was calm, but the overall suppression of negative factors was not optimistic about the outlook. This week, the US market will release more economic data and the Fed chairman will also give a speech. All these factors will have a certain impact on the basic metal market. On the other hand, the shortage of the copper market will continue, which will intensify the long and short delivery of the copper market. The recent increase in open interest in the copper market also indicates this situation. Technical stabilization in the short-term may lead to consolidation. The midline trend remains to be seen. Operational recommendations: mainly short-term. Overseas express delivery: COMEX copper market report: New York, June 14 news: Suppressed by a small amount of fund liquidation, high-level copper on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) closed lower on Monday. The trading volume on the day was lower. The July copper closed lower on the 14th. At an average price of 115.25 cents per pound, an internal trader said that a small number of funds have emerged from the market, but the transaction volume is not high. The daily trading volume is expected to be around 13,000 lots, of which 6,000 will be moved to the warehouse. He added At present, investors continue to move the July contract to September. Another trader expects the July contract support at 113.75 cents and resistance at 119.00 cents. LME copper stocks fell by 1,150 metric tons to 119,800 metric tons on the 14th. Comex copper stocks fell 1,691 short tons to 118,227 short tons on the 11th. By the end of Comex, LME copper prices fell by 7.50 US dollars in three months, reported 2,547.50 US dollars per ton. LME Market Report, London, June 14 News: Monday, London Metal Exchange (LME) The market was dull in the afternoon and the transaction volume was quite low. The prices of base metals all showed a weak trend. Traders said that the market's “3rd Wednesday†for June is only a matter of routine pricing. A trader said: “ People adjust the site before the third Wednesday in June, despite The strong early US dollar trend triggered some profit-taking, but later the euro strengthened against the US dollar at the end of the comprehensive transaction. “Another trader said,†Last week’s selling has been exhausted and the venue has been The low rebounded slightly. “The earlier metal prices fell due to liquidation and fund selling triggered by a stronger dollar, but as the dollar weakened, metal prices reversed higher. The dollar fell against the euro late on Monday and against the yen since the week. The highs have fallen, as previously released reports showed that the U.S. trade deficit expanded to a record level in April. Over the past two years, the trade deficit has dragged down the U.S. dollar. Some analysts said Monday's report suggests that the U.S. dollar weakness may continue. Trading was more active. After the opening on the 14th, it was hit by funds and speculative sell-offs. The three-month zinc price once fell to a low of US$1,013.50, but a bargain-hunting bid emerged near the price to push up the market. The subsequent zinc price was 1,000-1,035. The dollar range is within a narrow range. Traders expect support at $1,000. The other base metals markets were quieter that day and copper prices fluctuated between $2,520 and $2,570. IFS Analyst Robert Barham noted that The market closely follows the US economic data to be released this week. He also pointed out that as the summer off-season is approaching, copper prices may continue to weaken; however, in the long run, tight market supply and strong Chinese demand will continue to support the copper market. On the 14th, aluminum prices fluctuated within the range of US$1,625-1,645. The strength of the US dollar made its price rise limited. Near the close, a small amount of speculative buying emerged at the low point, causing aluminum to recover some lost ground. Nickel prices hit a high of US$13,000 on that day. , but lack of motivation to continue to explore. Lead prices rose on the 14th, the market trading was light. Tin prices in the range of 8,400-8,700 US dollars.
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