International coil demand increases Chinese steel export opportunities

In view of the rising prices of raw materials for iron ore and coking coal and the increase in international demand, major international steel mills have raised the ex-factory prices of steel products. US steel mills have seen price adjustments almost crazy. In the past two months, Nucor Steel has raised the price of coils six times in a row. If accepted by the market, the US sheet price will rise to the highest level since November 2008. Several steel mills in Europe have also announced that they will increase the price of thin sheets in the second quarter, and ArcelorMittal will have an increase of 90 euros/ton. The rise in steel prices in various regions will inevitably drive up the export prices of international coils. It is said that U.S. users are more willing to import from the Commonwealth of Independent States, even if they have a delivery period of 3 or 4 months.

Export quotation for coils from Russian and Ukrainian steel mills has risen by more than US$100/t. As of last week, the export prices of coils in Russia and Ukraine have risen by more than US$100/tonne compared with the same period of last year in December. The current production resources in February are nearing sales. New Lipetsk Steel hot coil export price up to 740 US dollars / ton (Black Sea FOB), cold roll 850 US dollars / ton (Black Sea FOB), Ma Steel hot coil 700-720 US dollars / ton (Black Sea FOB), Severstal Mills exceed $700/tonne (Black Sea FOB). Ukraine's Ilic and Zaporo hot steel mills are also seeking higher export prices for coils. The export price of hot coil is 700-720 US dollars / ton (Black Sea FOB), cold coil 810-830 US dollars / ton (FOB), most of the export volume to the United States, Eastern Europe and Asia.

In Asia, Japanese steel mills' export price for HRC in the first quarter of Korea will be close to US$750/tonne (FOB), and it is possible to seek further price increases. Affected by floods in Queensland, coking coal supply in Japan's domestic steel mills has been tight, and domestic steel prices have been bullish. Nippon Steel has notified users to seek flat steel prices such as HRC again by US$61/ton in January. Hot export quotation from South Korea's Pohang Iron and Steel Company rose to US$710-730/tonne (FOB), and the new HRC quotation from China's steel mills will also be raised to about US$700/tonne (FOB). Last week, B hot coil export quotation At around 675-680 U.S. dollars per ton (FOB). China Taiwan Steel’s HRC export prices for March shipments were raised by US$30-40/tonne to US$680/tonne (FOB). Compared with other major steel mills in Asia, which offer US$700 per ton (FOB), China Steel will further increase its export prices.

With the increase of international procurement activities, market participants are more optimistic about the short-term international coil export market, and export quotation will further increase in the future.

The increase in demand in the international market will also have an indirect pull for the export of Chinese coils. The rapid rise in the US market has a certain temptation to steel in the Commonwealth of Independent States, South Korea, and China Taiwan, because anti-dumping Chinese HR coils cannot be exported directly to the United States. However, if more coils of heat flow to the United States in Korea, China may take the opportunity to expand its export of boron-containing coils to South Korea. The rise in the European market is less than that of the United States, and prices are less attractive to China. In the later period, if the import demand in India and Southeast Asia recovers, there will be opportunities for China's steel exports this year.