-- Copper price trend analysis after the mid-October after the plunge, LME comprehensive copper rebounded sharply to 3100 US dollars / ton or more after the recent major adjustments, December 2 single day drop of up to 120 US dollars, and Shanghai copper in In the rebound process, the positions have steadily increased. Both long and short sides are confronted with each other. This shows that there is a big gap between the trend of the market for copper prices and how the copper price outlook will be interpreted. The author believes that in the paradoxical pattern of long and short intertwined, if the rational analysis of the fundamentals of the copper market and the market factors that dominate the recent copper price, then the trend of copper prices will form a more clear view. First analyze the overall supply and demand of copper and its evolution trend. Due to the recovery of the global economy, the demand for copper has been very strong this year. In the first 10 months of this year, the consumption of refined copper in China has increased by about 20% compared to the same period of last year, and the demand for copper in the United States has also increased by nearly 10%. This is driving copper prices higher. The main driving force. Due to the shortage of electricity, China's electricity investment will continue to grow rapidly in 2005, and the power industry is a large demand for copper. Therefore, China's refined copper consumption will maintain rapid growth next year, but due to macroeconomic regulation and interest rate hikes. As a result, the demand for copper in industries such as real estate and autos will be restrained, so it can be expected that China's demand for copper will slow down next year. The new demand for copper in the United States is mainly due to the rapid development of the construction real estate industry. Real estate is very sensitive to interest rate changes. As the United States enters a cycle of interest rate hike, this strong demand is difficult to sustain, and the continuous decline in the US ECRI leading indicators and industrial production. The weak trend also made copper's demand outlook less optimistic. Therefore, in general, the demand for copper will slow down in the next year. At the same time, the copper's spot processing fee (TC/RC) has increased from 10/1.0 at the beginning of the year to 120/12, indicating that the supply of copper ore is growing steadily and rapidly, driven by huge profits, refined copper The smelting capacity is gradually expanding, so the supply of refined copper will increase steadily next year, and the supply gap will gradually shrink. The continued decline of the US dollar is also one of the driving forces for higher copper prices. The US dollar index has fallen from 120.4 in February 2002 to around 80, close to a 10-year low, with a drop of 33%. There is a certain rebound in the technical requirements. If further sharp declines will affect the stability of the global financial system and trigger the intervention of some national governments, there is very little room for the dollar to continue falling sharply in the short term. Therefore, from a trend point of view, the copper market is gradually moving towards a balance between supply and demand. The medium-to-long-term trend of copper prices is gradually falling. The huge reverse price difference in the Shanghai copper contract has also been initially reflected. What really concerns the market is when the inflection point will appear? Has the copper price peaked now? The author believes that the inflection point appears difficult to predict accurately. At present, LME copper stocks are still falling, and the spot premium is still above 120 US dollars. This shows that the stock of copper is still very tight, but there are some signs in the market that the price of copper from the top Maybe not far. 1. The spot price of copper was significantly stagnated after reaching 32,000 yuan/ton, and the transaction volume was very small. As copper processing and end products such as copper wire and air conditioners are in a competitive market, prices are difficult to increase. As a result, copper consumer companies have a mentality of holding money at 32,000 yuan/ton or more, and there is a situation where there is no market price. If the price of refined copper cannot be smoothly transferred through its downstream products, this will be one of the main signals for copper prices to peak. Investors must pay full attention to them. 2. The CRB index fell sharply, and the related commodities as a whole weakened. CRB index as a comprehensive indicator of global commodity prices, its peak decline often means that the global commodity market as a whole weakened. The recent weak prices of agricultural products and other non-ferrous metals and the sharp drop in crude oil prices led the CRB index to continue to decline. Statistics show that the correlation between the CRB index and copper prices has reached 96% since 2003, so the sharp drop in the CRB index indicates that copper prices are highly likely. In the near future there has been a major adjustment. From the above analysis, we can see that under the condition that the exchange rate of the renminbi is stable, the lower oscillation of the copper price will be the main trend of the next year, while the exchange rate of the renminbi in China will be a fixed exchange rate, which will be pegged to the depreciation of the US dollar in a situation where China’s foreign trade conditions and economic performance are good. The internal pressure that causes the appreciation of the renminbi exists, so the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to accelerate the progress and magnitude of the decline of copper. So now is the timing of strategic short-selling copper? The author believes that although the overall trend from the copper price began to fade, if the current heavy short-term copper has the following risks: 1. The risk of squeezing the market in recent months has started. Nearing the delivery time, CO0412 contract COFCO seats still hold about 7,000 long contracts (about 30,000 tons of copper), Cu0501's open interest amounted to 110,000 contracts. As of last Friday, Shanghai Futures Exchange's copper inventory was only 2%. More than 10,000 tons, if there is not enough time to make up for imported copper, the bulls may pull up copper prices in the short term and force the shorts to cut positions. 2. The huge reverse price gap makes it necessary to bear a large monthly exchange price difference, which is not conducive to the smooth transition of short positions to distant months. The time cost is relatively large and it is easy for the empty side to fall into a passive situation. Therefore, investors should pay close attention to the market, take a small amount of caution on the rallies, and control the risks. Economic Observers: Confusion and Trend of a Strong US Dollar Policy In the gloomy cloud of economic adjustments in major developed countries, whether the US dollar will continue to maintain strong policies has become a sensitive issue for the global financial community. In the United States, the difficult-to-manage business sector after the dot-com bubble hopes to ease the weak dollar policy, while the US financial community hopes to maintain a strong dollar policy to attract more global funds; in the international market, the dollar policy changes It will directly affect the changes in the flow pattern of international capital. Global investors cannot but pay attention to it. Developed countries and emerging market countries that hope to promote economic growth by attracting foreign capital cannot but pay attention. At this time, the United States' view of the strong dollar policy has undoubtedly become so sensitive that it is sensitive to the fact that US President Bush acknowledges that the strong US dollar has a negative impact on the industrial sector, which will directly lead to fluctuations in the exchange rate of the US dollar. So, how did the strong dollar policy fall into today's confused trend? 1. Will changes in U.S. finance ministers lead to changes in strong U.S. dollar policies? The controversy over the strong dollar policy first came from the differences among different interest groups in the United States. Judging from the policy context, the strong dollar policy was proposed by Rubin, who served as US Treasury secretary during the Clinton period. The expert from the financial sector shouted the policy oath of “a strong dollar in U.S. interests†for the first time in the mid-1990s. Its successor, Summers, also firmly supported this policy. To this day, the financial community currently serving as a senior position at Citibank still emphasizes from the perspective of its financial industry: "Strong dollar policy is exactly what our country should take. "In fact, the strong dollar policy is also considered to be one of the important pillars that promote the continued expansion of the US economy." What attracts people's attention now is that Bush replaced Clinton, and O'Neill from the industry replaced Rubin from the financial sector as the US Treasury Secretary. After the new Bush Administration came to power, the market was optimistic about a number of candidates with both economic professional background and financial industry practice. However, the result was unexpected. O'Neal, who was born in the industrial sector, took over the new finance minister. He just came in from the industry. The point of view emphasizes the negative impact of a strong dollar policy on the U.S. economy. O'Neill and the US industry represented by him emphasized that although the strong dollar policy has caused damage to the interests of the U.S. export industry, under the circumstances that the U.S. economy is booming and the stock market is raging, the loss of exporters’ book profits is at least a reliable stock market capital gain. Make up for it, but at present, the US economy is weak, the stock market is sluggish, and the unemployment rate is high. Only the US dollar stands alone, and the pressure on the industry can be imagined. In fact, according to a study published earlier by JP Morgan of the United States, the relative export performance index of the US industry showed a positive trend from 1993 to 1997, but since 1997, the US dollar has been extremely high and declined. It is expected that by the end of 2001, it will fall back to the level of 1993. This figure shows that the share of U.S. enterprises seized in overseas markets from 1993 to 1997 has been lost due to strong U.S. dollar in recent years, and it is also strong. The U.S. dollar also made the U.S. domestic market more occupied by foreign imports. For these realities, O'Neill from the industry can not understand. In fact, U.S. manufacturers, through their respective channels, strongly appealed for a correction of the U.S. dollar, and stressed that the strength of the U.S. dollar is a speculative bubble that has been unwilling to burst, but must eventually burst. In this sensitive context, the market even the United States President said that the strength of the US dollar is both beneficial and detrimental to the United States. The Bush’s attempt to impartially emphasize that the drawback of the strong dollar is to make exports more difficult. It is the market that has determined the strength of the US dollar by helping to attract more capital. Without a firm emphasis on firmly maintaining a strong dollar policy, it has directly led to market misgivings. Second, the financial sector insists on a strong US dollar is conducive to the U.S. The U.S. financial sector is undoubtedly a beneficiary of a strong U.S. dollar policy. The strong U.S. dollar has attracted large-scale international capital inflows and contributed to the prosperity of the U.S. financial market. It is precisely because of this that the former US Treasury, which has put forward a strong dollar policy, and the current senior manager of the US Citigroup, Rubin, strongly adhere to the strong dollar policy. Rubin's reason has a very clear theoretical framework. First of all, Rubin believes that a strong US dollar keeps U.S. prices and interest rates at relatively low levels, and the Fed can therefore have more room to relax its monetary turmoil to fight the recession, at least for the time being without worrying about inflationary pressures. Second, a strong dollar is conducive to attracting inflows of international capital and encouraging foreign investment in dollar-denominated assets. The United States can make up for the huge current account deficit through these capital inflows. Theoretically speaking, the US current account deficit mainly reflects the huge difference between low savings and high investment, while the current US current account deficit mainly relies on the inflow of overseas funds. If it cannot maintain a strong dollar policy, no one can guarantee it. International capital will not flow to other regions. This is undoubtedly a disaster for the stability of the US financial market. According to statistics, the current US trade deficit is an average of 450 billion U.S. dollars a year, accounting for approximately 4.5% of the U.S. GDP, which is undoubtedly a fairly high level. Third, a weak US dollar may trigger inflation, because the current US economy is in a period of adjustment, which may lead to the emergence of "stagflation" that currently has no effective governance. 3. Are there strong international reasons for the strong dollar? At present, many scholars believe that the current strong US dollar interest rate violates the basic principle of the exchange rate decision, based on factors such as the lack of economic growth in the United States and low interest rates. In fact, these views are only a partial and static analysis. The current controversy over the strong US dollar policy is not merely a dispute over the interests of different industrial sectors in the United States. In fact, the maintenance of a strong dollar policy is also a strong reserve currency position occupied by the U.S. dollar under the current specific international monetary system and the U.S. economy. The dominance of the global economic system determines that the strong reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar has not yet met with strong challenges. The development of U.S. financial markets and the relative health of the economic system have a strong attraction for global capital. This is one of the international reasons why a strong dollar can be maintained. In fact, since 1982, the United States has switched from a net exporter of international capital to a net importer, and the scale of international capital inflows has increased year by year. According to estimates by the United States, the former Boston Trust Bank, the United States actually uses the world’s net savings. About 72%. After the US economy began to decelerate in the second quarter of 2000, many people believed that international capital would flee the United States and flow to Europe, especially the euro zone. However, the new data does not support the argument that international capital will divide up into Europe. Whether it uses the net capital inflow/outflow index or the gross inflow index analysis, there has been no abnormal change in the pattern of international capital flows between developed countries since the second quarter of 2000, and there has been no significant reduction in international capital flows to the United States, but has flowed into the euro. There is also no significant increase in the international capital of Japan and Japan. In particular, net direct investment flows and net securities investment flows that are highly correlated with the fundamentals of the economy are still a momentum for the United States to maintain a net inflow. Both the euro area and Japan are net outflows. International securities investment flows into the United States are particularly unexpected. Investment inflows into the United States in 2000 amounted to US$465.9 billion, an increase of 41% from the US$331.5 billion in 1999. Despite major fluctuations in the US stock market in 2000, international stock inflows into the US stock market reached US$171.8 billion, a 74% increase over the US$98.7 billion in 1999. In 2000, the international bond investment that flowed into the US corporate bond market reached US$294.1 billion, compared with US$232.8 billion in 1999. In the first quarter of 2001, international investors’ investment in US securities increased further, and the net international capital flowing into the US long-term securities market reached US$155 billion. Therefore, under the current international monetary system, the unique economic status of the United States and a sound financial market are still attractive to international capital. An important sign since 2001 is that once the international market has changed, international capital has turned more to the perfect financial markets such as the United States. The deterioration of the international economic environment and the fierce fluctuations have greatly strengthened the awareness of risk among international investors. The decision-making preference of “flight to quality†(FLIGHTTOQUALITY) has become the primary choice for the flow of international capital. Fourth, the adjustment of the strong dollar policy is unavoidable, but it is certain that Fed Chairman Greenspan, who is deemed to be the "economic president" of the United States in the short term, has had a wonderful discussion of economic fluctuations. He said: Are we capable of eliminating the fluctuations in economic activity? Can more appropriate fiscal and monetary policies eliminate the business cycle? We should clearly say that we cannot. The philosophical financier pointed out that the reason for this answer is very simple, because nothing can change the nature of human beings, because people tend to go back and forth in optimism and pessimism. This kind of optimism and pessimism is sometimes reflected in excessive The formation and dissolution of speculation. The US dollar exchange rate is one of the important indicators of economic fluctuations in the United States and abroad, and it cannot escape the inevitable law of rising and falling volatility. Even a better economic policy will not work. Moreover, the trend of the US dollar is directly affected by the current specific international monetary system and current The constraints of the economic interests of different countries and regions, the preferences of international capital flows, and so on. Therefore, we must first say that the fluctuation of the U.S. dollar and the adjustment of the strong U.S. dollar policy are unavoidable. The U.S. cannot occupy such a large amount of global savings resources at such a low cost. The U.S. cannot always be an international financial community. "Spoiled, irresponsible children." Historically, the US dollar has continued to soar during the 1980-85 period, but it has inevitably plunged all the way between 1986 and 1988. However, when such adjustments can be made, it depends on the adjustment of the international monetary system, the changes in the relative strengths of reserve currencies, and changes in the international economic and financial situation. The adjustment of these factors in the short term is unrealistic. In particular, taking into account the huge US deficit and taking into account the current weak global economy, if the US dollar policy makes drastic adjustments, then not only the United States may experience a greater economic disaster, but the global economy may also be subjected to a strong impact and trigger The new interest pattern adjustment. On the whole, if the strong dollar policy suddenly adjusts, the impact on the Latin America and Asia that rely heavily on the United States will be greater, and the countries and regions such as China that actually peg the currency to the US dollar may benefit from it. (Basong State Council Development Research Center) Industry trends Road for non-ferrous metals industry to seek “regeneration†Zhou Changyi, deputy director of the Department of Comprehensive Utilization of Environment and Resources at the National Development and Reform Commission, proposed at the 4th International Forum on Recycling Metals recently held that China’s mineral resources are in short supply. Increasingly, the demand for non-ferrous metals will continue to increase. In the future, China should vigorously develop the recycling metal industry. The growth of non-ferrous metal production should be shifted to the track of growth of renewable non-ferrous metal production. In recent years, China's non-ferrous metal production has grown rapidly. In 1983, China's non-ferrous metal output was only 1.31 million tons, and it will reach 13.8 million tons in 2004, an increase of 10 times in 11 years, becoming the world’s largest producer. However, China is also a country with very few non-ferrous metal minerals. At present, China's proven reserves of copper mines can only be exploited for 7 years. Lead mines last for 6 years to 7 years, bauxite mines are also less than 30 years, and severe resource shortages have become non-ferrous industrial development. Hey. At the same time, the consumption of non-ferrous metals in China is rising in a straight line. In the past 10 years, the consumption of copper and aluminum in China has grown at an annual rate of 18% and 23% respectively, and the growth in the consumption of major non-ferrous metals has doubled the GDP growth. With the acceleration of China's industrialization process and the advancement of urbanization, the demand for non-ferrous metals will maintain a double-digit growth rate every year. On the one hand, resources and energy are lagging behind the rapid development of the non-ferrous metals industry. On the other hand, domestic demand requires that non-ferrous metal production continue to advance. The answer to this difficult problem is to vigorously develop renewable non-ferrous metals, and the regeneration of non-ferrous metals should become the main force for the development of China's non-ferrous metals industry. In foreign countries, waste metal resources are called “urban mines†and 100% can be recycled and reused. There is no shortage of resources. The recycling metal industry not only can effectively alleviate resource shortages, but also can greatly reduce energy consumption and reduce environmental pollution. In 2003, the output of renewable non-ferrous metals in China was 2.57 million tons. Compared with the production of the same amount of mineral metals, it can save energy by 12.26 million tons of standard coal, save 1.02 billion tons of water, reduce 544 million tons of solid waste, and reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide by 256,200 tons. Ton. By 2020, if the proportion of China’s aluminum output in the total aluminum production can be increased from the current 21% to 60%, it can save 136.5 billion kWh, which is equivalent to saving the average annual output of one and a half years of the Three Gorges Project. Save water 91 million cubic meters. Recycling non-ferrous metal industry as an important area of ​​circular economy, in the country to vigorously develop a recycling economy and building a resource-saving society in the excellent environment, is facing a very good opportunity for development. According to Zhou Changyi, the National Development and Reform Commission will set up a special fund next year to support the demonstration projects for regenerating the non-ferrous metals industry, promote technological progress in China's renewable metal industry, and achieve leap-forward development of the industry. (China Tax News) Recycling Metals: How to Operate with “Self-reliance Portal†With the development of recycling economy in China in 2004, the non-ferrous metal recycling and utilization industry has received widespread attention from all walks of life: For the first time, China treats the recycling of scrap metal as an independent industry of national economic development, and has begun to formulate industry development plans and related policies; relevant departments have set up special funds in the national debt funds to support the construction of industrialization demonstration projects for recycled metals; Encourage the import of scrap metals; establish and improve the domestic recycling system... These are the “treatments†that the recycling metal industry has never had. On November 8, the 4th International Forum on Recycling Metals opened in Suzhou. While summarizing the characteristics of the recycled metal industry in 2004, it also put forward requirements for the future development of the industry. The attention of all parties has accelerated the development of the recycled metal industry in 2004. According to relevant statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, China’s output of recycled metal continued to run smoothly compared with the same period of last year. The total output of recycled metal reached 2.34 million tons, and the total industrial output value reached 46 billion yuan; of which, the output of recycled aluminum reached 1.2 million tons. 960,000 tons of recycled copper and 180,000 tons of lead recycled. At the same time, since the average life cycle of many metal products in China is longer than that of developed countries, the phase-out period for domestic metal products entering the large scale has not arrived yet. In this case, the total amount of 1.1 million tons of various non-ferrous metals was still recovered in the first three quarters; of which, 270,000 tons of copper was scrapped and 520,000 tons of waste aluminum. In the first three quarters of 2004, a total of 3.6 million tons of waste non-ferrous metals were imported, including 2.764 million tons of scrap copper, 749,800 tons of aluminum scrap and 52,800 tons of waste zinc. The areas with large amounts of imported scrap metal are Zhejiang Province, Guangdong Province, Tianjin City, Shanghai Municipality and Jiangsu Province. As of August 2004, these regions imported 1.45 million tons of scrap metal, 580,000 tons, 410,000 tons, 18 respectively. Ten thousand tons and 102,000 tons. The dismantling industry for imported scrap metal not only made direct contributions to the regional economic development, but also provided a steady stream of basic materials for scrap metal dismantling industry, directly stimulating the rapid development of other local industries. It is understood that at present, there are 26 companies with a production capacity of over 10,000 tons of recycled aluminum. Shanghai Xinge Metals Co., Ltd. is a large-scale aluminum production enterprise in China, with an annual output of 130,000 tons of aluminum alloy ingots. In the future, the production capacity will reach 250,000 tons, which will become a large-scale aluminum remanufactured enterprise with a single plant in Asia; Jiangsu Yiqi Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. produced a reclaimed aluminum ingot of 80,000 tons last year, and the second-phase project will produce 180,000 tons of production capacity. Zhejiang Taizhou Qihetiandi Metal Co., Ltd. and Taiwan's Kaohsiung Aluminum Co., Ltd., a joint-venture aluminum plant, started production in December 2003 and will reach a level of 50,000 tons this year. For recycled copper, Ningbo Jintian Copper Group, Shandong Linyi Jinsheng Nonferrous Metals Group, Zhejiang Hailiang Group, Zhangjiagang United Copper Industry Co., Ltd., and Tianjin Datong Copper Company all have relatively large scale. The output of three renewable lead companies such as Jiangsu Chunxing Alloy Group, Hubei Jinyang Metallurgy Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Flywheel Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. has exceeded 100,000 tons. The rapid development of these large-scale enterprises has, to a certain extent, reversed the concept of “recycling waste materials is rubbishâ€. While expanding the scale of the company, the scrap metal recovery and dismantling technology has also been greatly improved. Originally, only companies engaged in simple recycling and dismantling operations have started to extend their industrial chain and are developing towards deep processing with high downstream technological content. Taking Zhejiang Wantai Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. as an example, the company has developed from the recycling of scraps to the production of aluminum alloy ingots, followed by the production and research and development of automobile parts and components, and the technological content of products has been greatly improved. Now, they are developing new projects to supply aluminum alloy solutions directly to the downstream parts manufacturers. This not only saves the remelting process, but also saves energy. It is a new direction for the development of the recycled aluminum industry. For a long time, the entire industry has not been out of the "household-style" business model, "heavy management, light management" is their common problem. Due to various factors such as the shortage of domestic raw materials and rising production costs, a number of large and old non-ferrous metal companies, related industries, and foreign multinational companies have invested in the recycling metal industry this year. The involvement of these companies has resulted in low management levels and management. In order to avoid “outgoingâ€, small enterprises with poor capabilities have “little ideas†to reduce costs – small workshops have started without supporting environmental protection facilities, causing serious pollution problems and becoming the industry’s rapid development during the year. Disharmonious notes. At present, China's scrap metal distribution center is gradually formed, such as Liaoning Dashiqiao, Henan Changge, Zhejiang Yongkang, Hunan Miluo, Shandong Linyi and Guangdong Nanhai and other places, the domestic scrap metal resources are basically concentrated in the above areas, and formed Unique scrap metal market. Miluo City's renewable resources market has now formed an acquisition force of 30,000 people. The annual volume of used materials is over 300,000 tons, including 70,000 tons of copper, 50,000 tons of aluminum, and 20,000 tons of stainless steel; Henan Changge has formed four major The market, that is, the original chromite trading market, the aluminum profile market, the stainless steel market, and the metal charge market in Zhongzhou, has an annual metal throughput of 400,000 tons; Shandong Linyi is also one of the nation's distribution centers for scrap metal, and the total amount of recycled scrap metal is 300,000. More than tons; Hunan Yongxing County and Xianju County, Zhejiang Province, is now the production base for silver recycling processing, precisely because of the recovery of silver, so that Yongxing County, which does not have mineral resources, has more than 100 companies with an annual output value exceeding 5 million yuan. . Therefore, it is possible to encourage the construction of small enterprises in these key areas and enter industrial parks for centralized production and sharing of environmental protection facilities. In recent years, some large-scale enterprises have increasingly realized the superiority of recycled metals. Aluminum Corporation of China has decided to invest in the construction of a recycled aluminum production line with a capacity of more than 100,000 tons. Shandong Aluminum Corporation, Baotou Aluminum Plant, and Sanmenxia Tianyuan Aluminum Plant have all produced aluminum-based companies in succession; Jiangxi Copper Large copper smelting companies such as Industrial Company, Yunnan Copper Company and Anhui Tongling Non-Ferrous Metal Company also actively use scrap copper to produce electrolytic copper. The advantages of these large-scale enterprise markets, technologies and talents will drive the overall level of the recycled metal industry. In addition, some well-known domestic institutions such as Tsinghua University, Peking University, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Kunming University of Science and Technology, as well as the original research institutes engaged in the study of primary metals are also involved in the research of the recycled metal industry, which will improve the technology of China's recycled metal industry. Levels and utilization levels play a significant role in promoting. Despite the recent sharp correction in the price of copper from the highs, the price movements have oscillated. However, unlike the previous trend, the copper price is still very strong at the low level. The key factor in supporting prices is the fundamental situation that the copper market itself is in short supply. The left picture shows the trends of the copper stocks in the Western world. The figure shows that stocks have been falling all the way, and it has fallen to the level of consumption of about 3 weeks, approaching the lower level in 1997. Therefore, although the pressure on the high copper prices will increase, but if the fundamental factors do not have the actual improvement, then the copper price bull market pattern is difficult to fundamentally reverse. Studying the factors influencing the change of the supply and demand relationship in the copper market and paying attention to the increase or decrease in copper inventories will provide strong evidence for the trend of the copper price outlook. Before the obvious evidence could be found, it would inevitably lead to operational inconvenience by considering the sharp correction of copper prices as a turning point for the bull market. In the current pattern of rising base metal prices, aluminum prices rose significantly lower than other base metals. However, the recent increase in positions in the aluminum market of LME has increased significantly. One of the factors that have a greater impact on aluminum prices is the fluctuation of alumina prices. The graph on the left shows the balance of supply and demand in the global alumina market and the trend of alumina price fluctuations. The chart shows that although alumina prices have fallen sharply from high levels, the market shortage may continue into 2005. On the one hand, the growth momentum of alumina production capacity is estimated to be relatively limited because of the long investment cycle. On the other hand, alumina demand will continue to grow rapidly in the coming years. The tense situation in the alumina market will undoubtedly bring good support to aluminum prices, and it is likely that the further rise in aluminum prices will help boost the market. Investment Think Tank Perspective Operation Huang Chongyan Copper: Aftermath Look at the opportunity to take the opportunity to empty Yang Xiaorong Copper: oscillating aluminum: low volatility holding a few short-term moves Yang Haili Copper: oscillation watching Liu Huiyuan Copper: oscillation short-term entry and exit (above are personal opinions, for reference only, not as Based on the market basis, this operation is at your own risk.) Trading data One week's main data (2004.11.29-2004.12.3, LME copper and aluminum trading volumes and positions from the previous Friday to Thursday's data): The species opened higher and lower Closing Change Volume (hand) Volume (hand) LME copper 3002 -72 330706+41237 178972+3196 LME aluminum 1808 -46 602143+31360 491400+20530 Shanghai February copper 27980 - 121380+18262 Shanghai February aluminum -250 84702+44558 19818+1706 One week inventory change (December 6, 2004): Variety of inventory changes LME copper 57000 -2450 LME aluminum 724850 -15725 Shanghai Copper 26452 +3194 Shanghai Aluminum Next week Notes The following is a memorandum of the next week's trading: 12.6 Monday: Germany's October industrial orders are announced at 19:00. 12.7 Tuesday: US 20:45 announced ICSC/UBS Huabao Chain Store Sales Survey (1204), 21:30 announced third quarter unit labor costs, 21:55 released Redbook Commercial Retail Sales Survey (1204), 23:00 announced 11 Monthly Challenger Corporate Layoff Report, December IBD Consumer Confidence Index. 12.8 Wednesday: The US announced consumer credit for October at 4:00, ABC/MONEY Consumer Confidence Index (1205) at 7:30, Mortgage Finance Index (1203) at 20:00, and Mortgage Market Index (1203) at 20:00, At 23:00, the November Richmond Fed service income index and the manufacturing shipment index were announced. 12.9 Thursday: China announced the industrial added value in November, the United States released the first jobless claims for the first time last week (1204), the average of four weeks of unemployment benefits (1204), import and export prices in November, 21:30. Announced wholesale inventory in October. 12.10 Friday: China announced the consumer price index for November, the United States released the Chicago Fed Midwest manufacturing index at 1:00, the producer price index for November at 21:30, and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for December at 22:45. Initial value, 23:30 announced ECRI weekly index (1203). Taurus Futures: Liu Huiyuan
Komatsu Electrical Parts,Komatsu Forklift Parts,Excavator Electrical Parts,Quality Komatsu Electrical Parts
JINING SHANTE SONGZHENG CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY CO.LTD , https://www.sdkomatsugenuineparts.com