According to the analysis, the future key applications of lithium-ion batteries will focus on power tools, light electric vehicles, new energy vehicles and energy storage systems. The industry scale in these areas will continue to grow exponentially in the next few years and will stimulate Lithium-ion battery demand.
Special packaging requirements are higher
Lithium-ion batteries are recognized as the most promising new batteries because of their high energy density and long cycle life. They are widely used in digital products, power tools, electric bicycles, new energy vehicles and energy storage. However, lithium-ion batteries currently have certain problems in large-scale manufacturing, and have high requirements for special packaging and high cost. The disadvantages of lithium-ion batteries are similar to those of lead-acid batteries, which is the problem of uniformity of batteries. In a battery pack, although a single battery life is quite long, a problem with the battery cell unit alone may cause a sharp drop in the life of the entire battery pack, and the battery life may be one-tenth of that of the single battery.
The competition pattern of lithium-ion batteries shows the status of China, Japan and South Korea. The output of the three countries accounts for more than 90% of global production. Japan and South Korea occupy the dominant position in the industry due to technological advantages. From the perspective of China, since 2010, with the gradual maturity of lithium-ion batteries in the field of power batteries, its replacement effect on traditional secondary batteries has become more obvious. The industrial scale of the entire lithium-ion battery has maintained a growth rate of more than 30%. . In 2012, thanks to the strong growth of new energy vehicles, energy storage power stations and consumer digital products represented by tablet PCs, the market size of lithium-ion batteries increased by 40.1% year-on-year to 55.68 billion yuan. In 2012, China's lithium-ion battery production was about 4 billion, an increase of 33% year-on-year, and the growth rate was much higher than the global industry growth rate.
At present, China's lithium-ion battery industry is mainly concentrated in the Pearl River Delta represented by Guangdong, the Yangtze River Delta represented by Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area represented by the Beijing-Tianjin region. Among them, the output value of lithium-ion batteries in the Pearl River Delta region accounts for about 35% of the country, and it has an absolute advantage. Zhang Qian believes that the future industrial gradient transfer trend will be intensified. The upstream lithium-ion battery material industry is more concentrated in the east, and the downstream battery assembly will gradually shift to the central and western regions. Lithium-ion power batteries have been upgraded, and the industry has gathered in traditional automobile cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Hefei and Guangdong. High-end lithium-ion battery materials barriers are high, Beijing, Jiangsu, Shanghai and other regions will continue to maintain a leading position, the advantages of the eastern region will be more obvious. Lithium-rich resources such as Sichuan, Yichun, Tibet and Qinghai will gradually form a battery material industry cluster.
Great potential for communication backup
According to the analysis, the future key applications of lithium-ion batteries will focus on power tools, light electric vehicles, new energy vehicles and energy storage systems. These industries will maintain a high-speed growth trend, while the scale of lithium-ion battery industry for traditional consumer electronics will Keep the current speed growing steadily.
In 2012, due to the stimulation of the concept of new energy vehicles and energy storage batteries, major lithium-ion battery manufacturers increased their investment, and the growth rate is expected to remain at least 25% in the next few years.
In addition, the service life of lead-acid batteries for communication is generally 4-6 years. As the number of communication base stations increases, it will drive the rapid and stable development of the backup power supply and replacement market. It is conservatively estimated that the new market capacity for communication backup batteries will be about 4.5 billion yuan in the future, and the replacement market will be around 1 billion yuan. Since lithium-ion batteries have a longer life in the field of base station energy storage, superior environmental pressure and smaller volume, operators are also actively using lithium batteries as energy storage batteries for base station construction. As the cost of lithium-ion batteries is further reduced, the proportion of lithium batteries in the field of base station energy storage will further increase.
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