The second half of 2017 will be a key node of the Chinese economy

“The sea is born in the night, Jiang Chun entered the old year”, and the Chinese Lunar New Year is approaching. On January 20, 2017, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the annual core economic data. Against the backdrop of a decline in the global economic growth hub, China’s economy continued to achieve 6.7% economic growth in 2016. Looking at China from China, the wind and the wind know the grass, the "L" type does not change the stable tone, the endogenous changes in the economic structure contain new hopes for development; from the global perspective, China is dying, the Chinese economy is growing momentum There is always a comparative advantage, and the deep changes in the external pattern herald new opportunities for the rise. We believe that the overall data is positive, and the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter is more than market expectations; China's economy is stable and changeable, cautiously optimistic, we also hope that investors will pay attention to the three core characteristics, namely deceleration and quality increase. Trend characteristics, periodic characteristics of the three-phase superposition, and policy characteristics of the triple relay.

First, the trend characteristics: deceleration and quality The laws of nature cannot be stopped, and endogenous changes determine the future. After more than 30 years of rapid take-off after the reform and opening up, the Chinese economy has become the world's second largest economy, and the trend of economic growth is declining. Deceleration itself is a natural law, and does not mean the weakening of economic growth kinetic energy, nor does it mean the lag of economic development. Faced with the challenge of natural law, China's pursuit of development shifts from extensive growth to intensive development, and with the change of development philosophy, the Chinese economy also presents a key feature of “deceleration and quality enhancement”. The improvement in the quality of economic growth is reflected in several dimensions:
First, the industrial structure is more reasonable. In 2016, the added value of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries increased by 3.3%, 6.1% and 7.8% respectively. The tertiary industry with strong employment absorption capacity and stable endurance growth momentum continued to grow;
Second, the consumption engine is getting stronger. In 2016, the total retail sales of consumer goods actually increased by 9.6%, of which online retail sales increased by 26.2%. The rise of consumption and consumption upgrade are forming a new and strong momentum; Third, the sharing of interests is more balanced. In 2016, the per capita disposable income of residents increased by 6.3%, and the per capita income difference between urban and rural residents slightly decreased;
Fourth, risk management is more effective. “Three to one, one drop and one supplement” showed initial results, and the risk factors that constrained the economic structure upgrade did not deteriorate further;
Fifth, the global position is even more important. China’s economy has further strengthened its core stabilizing role in the global economy. In 2016, China’s economic growth ranked first among the world’s top ten economies. In addition, China’s total economic output is the other nine fastest-growing economies in the world. At 2.21 times the sum of the sum, the Chinese economy did run out of the speed of the cheetah with the elephant's body. It is worth emphasizing that, according to our previous research on the long-term performance of international stock markets, the stock market is not a barometer of economic growth, but a barometer of economic growth. The core feature of the Chinese economy's “deceleration and quality increase” is that we are against Greater China. Regional stock market performance has the root cause of long-term cautious optimism.

Second, the cycle characteristics: the three-phase superposition cycle is important, but more importantly, there is a difference between the cycle and the cycle, the same economy may be in different types of cycles. Since May 2016, we have repeatedly stressed that the cyclical characteristics of China's economy are “three-phase superposition”, that is, “short-cycle rebound + long-term downturn + long-term rise”. From the short cycle of 2 years or so, the Chinese economy has started to rebound from the second half of 2016; from the long cycle of 5-10 years, the Chinese economy is in the “L” annual growth rate decline channel. In 2017, the growth rate will decline again compared with 2016. From the long period of 30-50 years, the supply-side structural reform will rationalize the endogenous mechanism, and the one-on-one strategy will open the external pattern and micro-incentive mechanism. The reconstruction and progress of global governance reforms will all contribute to the continued rise of the Chinese economy. The latest data reaffirms our judgment that is clearly different from the market. In the fourth quarter of 2016, China's real GDP growth was 6.8%, higher than the 6.7% in the first three quarters, and the short-term rebound rebounded. The annual data “deceleration and quality enhancement” was also highlighted by the Chinese economy in the “L”-type downturn. Keeping the start of the rise can provide a guarantee. From the perspective of rebound kinetic energy, we judge that the high point of this short-term rebound will be in the first quarter of 2017 to the second quarter. The second half of the year will be the key point for China's economy to solidify its bottom line and find support for kinetic energy.

III. Policy Characteristics: Triple Relay In the context of the superposition of three economic cycles, the steady development of China's economy requires continuous optimization of policy mix. We believe that the 2017 China economic policy mix will be based on the theme of “triple relay”:
First, the fiscal force will relay the monetary expansion. 2017 will officially open the Trump era, global inflation expectations are rising, the stability of China's economic bottom line requires fiscal policy to make more progress in a positive direction; monetary policy will maintain a sound tone, although there will be no substantial tightening, but The constraints of further relaxation have increased.
Second, the supply side policy relays the demand side policy. In 2017, the policy objective of the demand-side stimulus policy is to consolidate the bottom line, and the task of accumulating long-term growth momentum and forming a new development situation is left to the supply-side structural reform. The supply-side structural reform will also enter the implementation stage from the top-level design stage. The “three to one, one reduction and one supplement” will move forward, and the reform of state-owned enterprises will be steadily advanced, and the total factor productivity is expected to be gradually boosted.
Third, actively defend the relay and keep a low profile. The performance of the RMB at the beginning of 2017 has initially revealed the important changes in the Chinese policy layer to seek initiative in the external game. As we analyzed in the previous in-depth report, the increase in global trade friction in the Trump era is almost inevitable. China needs to actively respond and take the initiative; in the context of the UK’s hard-following and US strategic introversion, global governance is constantly changing, international With a deep transformation of the pattern, China will promote the synergy of global interests and the improvement of the global order with the model of “pro-honest and good fortune”. (Head of Chengshi ICBC International Research Department, Academic Member of Pangu Think Tank)

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