The era of monetary easing is still facing great resistance. Many people are reluctant to give up the "happiness" based on loose monetary policy and hope to end the monetary tightening cycle. The desire to start a new round of credit expansion has become the appeal of many people. They said that if stock prices and house prices rise rapidly, GDP can easily double, and investors can get huge profits in simple transactions. What is wrong with currency overshoot? However, the denormalization of the monetary environment that lasted for more than eight years has already caused the Chinese economy to be full of asset bubbles and severe inflation. This time, can we really stick to it? At present, in addition to the widespread difficulties faced by SMEs in financing difficulties and operational difficulties, the continued tightening of monetary policy has already jeopardized the relationship between supply and demand of funds in markets such as the interbank market and the money market. Even if it is not done properly, it may cause excessive panic in the market. For example, the recent credit data has clearly begun to go to normal, and the market is quite unacceptable. A few days ago, the central bank included commercial bank margin deposits in the deposit reserve, the original intention was to control the risk of off-balance sheet assets, but the market would not be so "good faith" interpretation. On September 5, the first day of the bank's contribution after the deposit reserve base was expanded, the funds frozen by the five major state-owned banks reached 69.2 billion yuan. This made the interbank market lending rate of the day rise across the board. Moreover, it is estimated that the expansion of the deposit reserve base will freeze 900 billion yuan in the next half year, which is equivalent to raising the deposit reserve ratio three times. It can be expected that on the next deposit date, the interbank market will inevitably cause a lot of reaction, and the arbitrage funds will be used to obtain the difference. The central bank’s new policy of expanding the deposit reserve base is so conspicuous that the tightening of liquidity behind it is very obvious. Its core role is to hedge the monetary policy that has not been effectively tightened in the past three months, but it should have been recycled. Mobility. At present, the overall liquidity of the economic system is still plentiful, foreign exchange holdings are still growing at a high speed, and the growth of broad money and new loans is not decreasing. It was precisely during this time that the monetary tightening encountered strong doubts. In desperation, the central bank had to temporarily suspend the currency tightening cycle. It should be noted that after July of this year, the “experience rule†for raising the deposit reserve monthly for more than eight months has ended. The central bank’s currency regulation to raise the benchmark interest rate has not been taken yet. The monetary policy seems to have entered the “empty windowâ€. period". Undoubtedly, the determination of the central bank to tighten the currency is beyond doubt. A few days ago, the deputy governor of the central bank, Ma Delun, firmly said that "prices do not fall, monetary policy does not take over, and the central bank has always maintained a high degree of vigilance for future price increases." However, the turmoil of the external environment is still unreliable. From the data of all parties, whether it is the PMI index, industrial added value or import and export level, the real economy situation is not optimistic. Coupled with the risk of bankruptcy of SMEs, the GDP decline caused by the freezing of the real estate market, the international economic recovery is weak, and many signs indicate the difficulty of economic growth. At this juncture, monetary policy has become too tight, and it has become the chief culprit in bringing all these problems. This kind of public opinion is endless. The "gentlemen" who called for the relaxation of monetary policy believe that as long as the monetary policy is no longer tightened, the SME crisis will pass and their financing problems will be solved. However, unfortunately, the financing difficulties of SMEs have never been caused by monetary tightening. Even when the credit leap forward, several small and medium-sized enterprises got a lot of money from the banks. In fact, the difficulty of financing SMEs has never been solved by the tight monetary policy. It is true that the current international trend is that the central banks are continuing to play the trick of quantitative easing, but this does not mean that China must follow up. If we follow up blindly, as soon as we encounter some trouble, we will come to a new round of economic stimulus plan, relax and continue the real estate regulation for so many years, and all policies will return to the path of growth, and ignore the adjustment of economic structure, then the Chinese economy It will only slip into the trap of hyperinflation quickly, and it is difficult to get out of this vicious circle. The normalization of the monetary environment is a long and trending process. There may be technical adjustments in the policy, but I do not believe that this trend will change again due to external forces. The monetary environment in these years is an abnormal state, and "normalization" is only a matter of time. For house prices, the normalization of the monetary environment will naturally "derive" a rational correction of house prices. And if the monetary environment cannot return to normalization, it will be difficult to receive the effect of house price regulation. This is a natural summary of years of regulatory experience.
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